Avi Gilburt and I collaborated on a recent article for Seeking Alpha and I share it here. I hadn't realized that he put a series together for our fibonacci pinball method off site, but that's worth it's weight in gold.
It would seem that cryptocurrency investors now have a lot in common with gold investors. Whereas gold has seen a prolonged pullback from 2011 to 2015, cryptocurrency investors have seen the same type of pullback, but over a shorter period of time. But we all have seen how the cryptocurrency markets move much faster than any other market on earth.
In past articles, we discussed how the $3000-$4700 zone for Bitcoin was key long term support. Ryan Wilday had called out that region in many of his public presentations and articles since early February last year. As discussed in our last article, we wanted to see $4700 hold, but Bitcoin had something else in mind, as it continued to decline to our next target in the $3000 region.
Since that time, we have seen a five wave rally to $4240, and have since pulled back correctively. This has now put us into “bull-market-watch.”
We can liken this current pullback in the cryptocurrency market to a mini version of our two-year long pullback in the gold market after the 2016 rally. Of course, gold bulls have suffered much longer than crypto-enthusiasts. But, cryptocurrency investors are not quite as patient as gold investors, as they have become accustomed to high volatility and fast money.
Sentiment in social media outlets we track has grown exceedingly bearish, which is the hallmark of the culmination of bear markets. We’ve seen many throw in the towel. We have seen cryptocurrency perma-bears pat themselves on the back, and renew calls for a target price of $0. Yet in the background of lost hope, frustration, and maybe even boredom, we have built one of the best setups for bulls we’ve had since our bear market began in early 2017.
Zooming into the details, we are within the throes of a very deep 2nd wave pullback within the Elliott Wave 5-wave structure. For those that want to learn a bit more about our Elliott Wave methodology, I have written the following 6-part series explaining the theory and application here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4198736-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-1
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4200678-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-2
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4202240-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-3
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203856-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-4
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4210288-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-5
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230400-analysis-will-change-way-invest-forever-part-6
While Bitcoin has not not quite reached the 76.4% retracement ($3320) of the initial rally off the bear market low, it will likely do so in the coming days. This is a very deep wave two, as these types of retracements typically hold a 61.8% retrace. But Bitcoin tends to go deep in its 2nd waves.
The next milestone after this correction completes is a five wave move to over $4000 for our first subwave of the third wave. This would give us a strong signal that our third wave is under way. The setup itself, provided it follows through, points us back up to the $6000 region in the coming months.
If the current bullish set-up takes shape, we can see a major break out in 2020. Moreover, the Fibonacci extension price targets, based upon log extensions, would point us to targets of at least $65,000, and potentially well beyond. But to get there, this market obviously has much work to do to the climb the wall of worry set in front of us.