Bitcoin's been able to hang on to it's gains over the past 24 hours. It's now reaching a few key resistance points. Getting through these points will be a real test of strength.
Bitcoin's approaching the edge of the downward channel it's been operating in for the last month and a half. It needs to break out of this channel to confirm a bullish trend change.
Looking at the daily chart, we can see bitcoin is also approaching the larger descending resistance line. It tried to break this line, but failed 2 weeks ago. As of now, volume is weak. We need to see a major increase in volume if bitcoin is going to break through.
The 4 hour RSI remains very bullish looking. It's been operating in a steady rising channel for the past 10 days.
The 1 day MACD has just crossed over into bullish territory.
Looking at the 4 hour chart, we can see the the 8 day EMA has just crossed above the 55 day EMA. This is a very bullish sign of strength.
Looking at the bigger picture, my bullish count has us in a second ABC correction within a WXY pattern. If accurate, bitcoin is just beginning wave B.
Zooming at the 1 hour chart, we can see bitcoin has been operating within a wedge. There are a few ways to count this price movement over the last few weeks. My bullish count has BTC completing wave 3, of 5 waves up. I've highlighted the sub-waves in pink.
As much as I'd like to only consider bullish possibilities, we must acknowledge a bearish count that's still in play. This bearish count has bitcoin just completing an ABCDE correction. If correct, we can expect 5 waves down. Here's how it may play out:
Zooming out on the 4 hour chart, I've labeled the sub-waves in yellow for this possible bearish scenario.
Let's see how the next 24 hours unfold.
BIAS:
Short Term:Neutral
Longterm: Very Bullish
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Thanks for stopping by.
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by Workin2005