Bitcoin prices rose in April, marking the third straight month of gains.
At this point, the question on everyone’s mind is: what will the market's most prominent digital currency do next?
The cryptocurrency experienced some notable increases early in the month, surging more than 20% in 24 hours, CoinDesk price data shows.
Bitcoin enjoyed additional gains later in April, but spent most of the month fluctuating between $5,000 and $5,500, additional CoinDesk figures reveal.
[Ed note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment.]
Bitcoin Markets 'Somewhat Indecisive,' Says Analyst
Because bitcoin spent most of last month trading within a modest range, some experts claimed the digital currency has still not entered a bull market.
"The market is still somewhat indecisive as to the direction it should go," said Joe DiPasquale, CEO of cryptocurrency fund of hedge funds BitBull Capital.
He noted that "Even though Bitcoin has been rising in price steadily, we have not entered a bull run yet."
Marouane Garcon, managing director of crypto-to-crypto derivatives platform Amulet, offered a similar view.
After stating last month that it was "very premature to say we've entered a bull market," Garcon reiterated this perspective.
"It could be like this for a while," he predicted, emphasizing that we "still have yet to see a clear indicator of a bull market."
Other analysts pointed to the positive developments the market experienced in April.
Improving Sentiment
"Sentiment has shifted over the past six months," said John Todaro, director of digital currency research for TradeBlock.
When making this statement, he emphasized several data points.
"Twitter mentions for bitcoin and ether in late April hit their highest numbers since Jan 2019," noted Todaro.
In early April, Google search interest for the term bitcoin "hit its highest level since December 2018, and remains higher than levels seen in October and early February," he added.
Further, Todaro noted that "Notional trading volume for bitcoin, across the largest US exchanges, is set to reach its highest monthly levels since December 2018," citing TradeBlock data.
Previously, "investors had been looking for excuses to sell, and now they are looking for excuses to buy," he stated.
"Negative news that has hit the space over the last few weeks, such as Tether solvency concerns, has had a much more dampened effect today, than those same reports would have had 6 months ago when sentiment was lower," said Todaro.
Bullish Technical Indicators
Jon Pearlstone, publisher of the newsletter CryptoPatterns, also weighed in on the positive signs bitcoin markets displayed in April, offering some technical analysis on the first digital currency to scale.
For starters, "price broke above the 2018 bear market trend line and held above it at the close of April bar on a monthly chart," he noted.
Second, "volume increased on a monthly basis over January, February and March."
Finally, he emphasized that "price closed above the key $5000 support level."
"These signs all support higher prices for BTC in the coming months with a likely test of the key $6000 level the most likely target," said Pearlstone.
DiPasquale also emphasized the key importance of this price level, stating that:
"Only after Bitcoin crosses $6,000 and stays there for a while can we begin considering the start of a bull market."
Bitfinex Situation A Cause For Concern
In spite of all these positive signs, investors should keep an eye on the Bitfinex/tether situation, emphasized Todaro.
"Early information indicates that Bitfinex may be looking to raise capital to stave off any solvency concerns," he noted.
"If the firm is unable to accomplish this, either through regulatory restrictions given recent NY AG court orders, or lack of market appetite for Bitfinex equity or tokens, then Tether and Bitfinex could see greater [withdrawals] and redemptions," stated Todaro.
Such developments could have serious implications for the digital currency industry, he stressed.
"If there is any serious run on Tether through redemptions, given the fact that the Tether stablecoin currently is only 70% backed by US dollars, this bleed through would impact the whole space as Tether is one of the largest on-ramps into crypto currencies and is the highest volume trading pair (BTC/USDT) on the world's largest exchange, Binance."
Disclosure: I own some bitcoin, bitcoin cash and ether.