Even though I love Bitcoin and I'm very bullish in the long term - I do expect some red bath coming this month.
Today is 03 of October, 2018.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a very narrow area. I expect the symetric triangle to be broken this month. I think the major capitulation is about to happen.
We already had a huge sell-off in February - the red weekly candle had a significant volume. We haven't seen such volume since that time. So I see two possible scenarios:
- we will have the major sell-off, with even higher volume than February, and start accumulation after the final shakeout period;
- we are in the middle of accumulation and we will get higher and higher volume from the bulls. I don't believe that's the case, though.. I think it's too soon and btc price must reach lower levels, before starting the bull run.
Some additional points to consider:
we don't have any huge catalyst to start bull market this year (don't get me wrong - the fundamentals are strong, we have already got plenty of great news for Bitcoin, but any of it had the impact to start the bull market). If something significally change in fundamentals - this cound lead the dirrection of the symetric triangle. However I expect the major catalyst will be the approval of CBOE EFT by SEC in Q1, 2019. I my opinion, the decision will be delayed till that time (SEC always takes their time) and approved in February. In this case, we have some time and space to go down this year.
I hear too many bullish expectations from traders in the short term. Youtubers and their followers are more bullish recently. These expectations never end well. Bull market comes when nobody expects it.
Stoch RSI and RSI are going down in the daily chart. Shows the momentum weakness of the bulls.
However the stoch RSI and RSI are about to start rising soon, in 4h chart. So we have some mixed signals. Maybe we could expect some price bounce in a very short term (e.g. the short squeeze could happen soon), and a big drop later. This could even mean the bear flag forming.symethic triangles are usually go down after bearish trends;
we still haven't broken out from the descending triangle of the bigger time frame. Descending triangles usually ends by the bears crashing the bulls.
do we have the strength to breake 200 MA? Do we?
Please do not take my words as financial advice. This is my personal opinion - you can aggree or disaggree, that's totally fine.
I can be wrong and that's also fine.
What do you think about the Btc price in the short term? Please leave your comment below, if you have some more points to consider.