One of my favorite sources for watching bitcoin price analysis is Tone Vays. He’s been saying that in the near term (this fall) we should see a drop to about $4950. After that, further evaluation to see whether it can drop to the most bearish low of $1300 again. While the 2017 bubble was an order of magnitude above the 2013 bubble, there are some differences this time around that will likely shorten this bear market that we are currently in. However, I don’t share the view that we’ll see new all time highs in 2018. I think this is more likely to happen in 2019, but I expect next year to be mostly sideways with high volatility. Some will declare a bull market next year, but it will be nothing compared to what’s coming in the early 2020’s.
I wrote about my predictions in the summer of 2017 and I predicted that a reversal trend would begin to happen by Feb 2018. It actually started down about a month earlier but this is within the margin of error for the long range forecasting method I am using. I believe that the next significant bull run will start in summer 2020 and peak by Feb 2021.
After Feb 2021, I don’t feel as certain. I suspect a drop or at least a plateau for a while after that and much depends upon the state of the technology. Bitcoin in it’s current form isn’t useful as a medium of exchange. The same goes for most altcoins with perhaps the exception of Dan Larimer’s projects (EOS, Steem and Bitshares) which have solved the scaling issues (by sacrificing security and decentralization to some degree). At this point, it requires too much technical skill for the average person to adopt cryptocurrencies. Lack of merchant adoption and the difficulty in securing funds (becoming one's own banker) is a significant obstacle.
I remain bullish on Bitcoin and EOS long term. There is less certainty over the remaining altcoins. Some of them will make a comeback when bitcoin does when we are in an established bull market. Until then, I expect most of them to dump value for the next year. Part of the problem will be establishment players trying to force hodlers into a panic sell so that they can get in cheaper themselves. They got caught out of the market at the wrong time and will try to manipulate the market to rectify their earlier mistakes in foresight.
You might ask, what happens in 2020? The halving of the block reward has coincided with the end of the last bitcoin bear market of 2014 - 2016. Aside from this, it’s a matter of understanding that life’s patterns repeat which means that markets also have repetitive patterns. This bull / bear swing will repeat until crypto has taken over national fiat as a means of exchange. When this happens, one of them will replace the USD as the main “unit of account”. I think there’s a strong possibility this could happen in the early to mid 2020’s. thinks the dollar collapse will happen a bit sooner. I think he’s basically right, but it will probably take a couple of years longer than he thought. I think he’s only wrong (slightly) on the timing.
Disclaimer: Don't misconstrue this as financial advice. Do your own research so that you can be responsible for your own trades.
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