A move of claiming only the top 20 segwit addresses alone right now would exceed the number of bitcoin stolen from Mt Gox. (>850,000 BTC).

Now you made me even more sure it’s going to happen. 😈

I'm thinking that once the Segwit booty exceeds 50% of the total BTC in existence, that's when it will happen. If I could just mathematically model the flow into segwit somehow, I might be able to extrapolate when.

At the 50% mark, the value of BTC Core and BTC legacy will be equal which turns this into something similar to a PoS situation where the majority BTC legacy is assured control.

Addendum Jun 3rd: Craig Wright has also been cosying up to the state, obtaining copyrights for a paper he probably didn't write (stylometry). I can imagine miners accepting bribes from state actors who want to destroy the crypto field by making an example of bitcoin using this as well. It will cause a mass panic at first because 99% of the public has no idea what's going on. Maybe someone gets the funds from the military budget and pays the miners 1+ Trillion to get started justifying the expense under "national security".