I don't think loan balances adequately explain the movement. Since, as you noted, there is a 300 day maturity period. I would expect that loans would mature on a rolling basis. The daily amount of loan liquidations in BCC is the the original loan BCC amount times the price ratio:

Eq 1: LoansPaidToday = VolumeLoansInBCC300DaysAgo X (Price300DaysAgo/PriceToday)

The percent change from a given days loan payouts should be close to:

Eq 2: LoansPaidToday / SUMxFrom1To300(VolumeLoansInBCCxDaysAgo)

Eq 2 should be less than 1% at around 0.34%( 1/300) , or even less given growing loan volume and increasing BCC price per the equations above.

The remainders not paid upon maturity {LoansPaidToday - VolumeLoansInBCC300DaysAgo} belong to Bitconnect, and could be collected in "sweeps" transactions to larger wallets. This could explain how the drawdown occurred, but does not explain the rapid repopulating of the wallets. Also, the change in addresses corresponds to movements in BCC/USD and BCC/BTC, which is consistent with a trading utilization(either fictional or real), but is inconsistent with fixed term debt instruments, whose operating characteristics are price agnostic.