Open Ledger Hack Has Little Impact on overall OPEN.BTC holdings.
In light of the Open Ledger hack I was curious to see the impact on OPEN.BTC holdings.
Background of hack…
https://steemit.com/bitshares/@themarkymark/psa-open-ledger-hacked
I have yet to see a full account or hardly any account of the hack. One day I did a brief observation there was a balance of various crypto assets with a value of $233,000 in being held in “openledger-investigation” account. An account “df-gh” and others were apparently used by the hacker. Looking at transfers into those accounts I estimated that maybe 80+ accounts had been hacked. One can investigate this in the Bitshares blockchain. I don’t really know to what extent of the hacking I saw and have not seen good data on it.
There has been a significant effort on Open Ledger’s part to fix the hack, which is good. There have been numerous transaction reversals and other actions including pledges to replace all hacked funds.
That said there is nothing like doing your own research so I jumped in with some data I had lying around.
I looked at the holdings of Open.BTC from March 21 and compared them to the holdings on June 26. These dates were mandatorily picked for convenience.
Looking at the data from the holdings in March we get this table…
So there was a total of 1,615 OPEN.BTC held in March and 1,627 held in June.
That is an increase of 1% there does not seem to be a mass number of people fleeing Open.BTC. At $5,000 USD per BTC that is about $8 Million USD.
There were about 12,839 accounts that hold OPEN.BTC.
I know from other data about 12,000 Bitshares accounts are active every day, about 30,000 accounts have traded on Bitshares in a prior two-month period and there are about 130,000 accounts that have a BTS balance. This means that Open.BTC is held by about 5 to 10% of all accounts on BitShares. Getting an accurate penetration number is difficult, as how does one count active accounts. I think the real number is closer to 21% penetration.
The fist row in the table shows that looking at those accounts more closely our data pull is not very clean as 5,785 of those accounts do not have a significant holding. (I think there might be some small micro amounts of BTC holdings in these accounts that is insignificant, but I am not really sure.)
Looking at the third row in this table, you can see that there were 257 accounts that in March had a balance of 0.1 to 0.2 BTC (Worth $750 with BTC at 5,000) (the table is grouped by this column). The total BTC in these accounts was 36.5 and the average BTC was 0.14. Now in June these exact same accounts had 32.4BTC with an average balance of 0.126.
Looking over the table, there does not appear to a be a mass migration of people out.
One can also determine that about 189 BTC appears to have moved into new accounts. This would include opening new accounts or moving balances to new accounts. So that is like 12% moving in.
I also sorted this table from the perspective of June so we could “look back.”
Accounts in that had a balance of 0 in June previously had a balance of 88 BTC in March.
I subtracted June from March and group by the movement and got this table.
For the most part most of the accounts 80% (10,280) did not move money at all.
It is really good to have a solid understanding of the flows of crypto and money. All these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but until I see better analysis, it does not appear that there is a mass exodus. Fortunately, my accounts were not affected by this hack, but I feel very lucky to have missed the bullet.
Anyway, I wanted to share the research publicly, if you see any other interesting numbers of conclusions feel free to comment below.