There are two fundamental factors in the price movement of the Bitshares currency. The first is the free quantity of BTS offers on the market. In Bitshares blockchain, BTS acts as a pledge asset for the creation of smart assets bitCNY, bitUSD ... ..
At the moment there are only two powerful smart assets - USD and CNY. The rest can be neglected because of their negligible influence.
The second factor is the value of BTS as a unit of calculation for goods or services, as well as means of capital accumulation. The more users of the system give BTS the value of money, the more the value of BTS in relation to the currency of the currencies is like the Dollar or the Euro. However, at this stage of the development of the system, this factor can also be completely ignored, due to the weak spread of BTS as the unit of calculation.
If we discard the speculative inflation of the price, as well as the collapse of the price in case of panic in the market, then we will have the only fundamental factor affecting the price of BTS in relation to the currency of the currency - the number of coins in the market.
(I recall that at this stage of the development of the detachment we will take as an insignificant factor the use of the BTS as a unit of calculation and as a means of accumulating capital)
As of May 2017
https://steemit.com/bitshares/@steempower/bitshares-state-of-the-network-23rd-may-2017
The number of smart assets for which BTS was withdrawn from the market amounted to a capitalization of $ 5.5 million.
As of May 2018
https://steemit.com/bitshares/@steempower/bitshares-state-of-the-network-22nd-may-2018
The number of smart assets for which BTS was withdrawn from the market amounted to a capitalization of $ 50 million.
Growth in the capitalization of smart assets amounted to 1,000 percent per year. However, in a numerical expression of 2.5 billion BTS are confronted with only 50 million dollars. That in terms of 50 BTS per dollar.
The fundamental problem of the Bitshares blockchain is the closed system. Ie impossibility to make a direct exchange of BTS for any other crypto currency, for example bitcoin, bypassing the intermediary, for example, Openledger or Gdex.
In Bitshares Blockchain there are also UIA assets that do not require collateral and are traded on the stock exchange. However, all of them, all without exception, are garbage assets that do not have the right to investor's attention with big money.
In connection with the inability to introduce new money into the system, and the community's weak interest in the development of new smart assets, the author estimates the fundamental value of the Bitshares coin at the level of 0.03-0.04 Dollar USA.
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