but what will ultimately matter is adoption. And that, I think, is more a factor of Utility and Performance.

Actually, adoption is a mixture of utility value and public perception, which is managed by marketers. Thus it becomes a balance between technology and business interests.

Marketing AND technological prowess are the 2 primary factors projects have direct control over. It's no surprise to me that the projects with the biggest marketcaps are those with strong marketing (not counting Bitcoin, it is biggest b/c it has 1st mover advantage & years of additional use / history).