I like the analysis, and your right... without insane growth the reserve pool would be drained. I think the goal should be to acquire this insane growth; not to be profitable in the short term.

A good analysis to do would be to calculate the fees required to compensate the loss from the reserve pool and compare to larger competitors. What percentage of market share would the DEX need to steal from poloniex or bittrex to make the network profitable?

The goal should be an Amazon like model. Spare no expense to grow as large as possible and don't care about profitability until you're dominant in the industry and can exploit market power to raise prices.