So you think you want to count cards? It’s not as hard as Rain Man would like you to believe.
My story begins in the Middle East in the spring of 2003 during the War in Iraq. They say war is 90% boredom and 10% pure terror. My time there was no different. Most of it was not spent fighting “terrorists” as much as fighting endless idle hours.
Down time between missions would see us in the gym two or even three times a day, often culminating in a more-serious-than-necessary wrestling match to settle some stupid boyish dispute. But after a while the staleness of the same routine day in and day out began to wear us down.
That all changed when the Other Government Agency boys got their resupply.
RESUPPLY
Everything we needed we had to transport in ourselves. Our FOB, or Forward Operating Base, sat on an empty patch of dirt in an even larger expanse of emptiness. Most of the personnel were military, but there was also a small team of government agents co-located with us running their own missions.
When it came to following the rules, these guys had a bit more flexibility. Unlike us, their regular resupply came from what looked like a civilian aircraft. Small and white, it wasn’t the typical C-130 or C-17 that I was used to. It was full of things like equipment, new personnel, food rations and… booze!
Pretty soon they formed a sort of private club that met almost nightly to drink, smoke and play cards. And these saints loved to share. I was always welcome at the table. In fact, they would delay the game, or even come looking for me, if I was held up by work. They were sharks, and I was their favorite pet. In poker parlance, I was known as a fish.
LEARNING THE ROPES
I was terrible every time I played. Our usual game was Texas Hold ‘em. The rules were simple enough - a pair beats a high card, two pairs beats a pair, etc. I picked up the basics without difficulty, but I had no concept of statistics, bet control, or the psychology of the game.
Oddly, no one bothered to correct me. So on I went playing every hand, calling every bet and when I was dealt a monster hand I would dutifully announce that everyone should fold. I look back on it with embarrassment. Within a week I gave away every penny of my tax-free paycheck to these jokers.
NOT MY GAME
Apparently poker wasn’t my strength. When I ran out of money I found out how many friends I really had. It was like Eric Clapton said, Nobody Knows You When You’re Down & Out. Poker players can be an unforgiving crowd.
The problem was I’d been bitten, and now I loved the cards. But I couldn’t afford to play poker anymore, so I turned my attention to a game I could play alone. Blackjack.
PRACTICE MAKES PERFECT
To tell you the truth, this wasn’t the first time I thought about counting cards. Before I deployed I watched a documentary about the game and was fascinated that it was possible to “beat the house.” I bought a book on blackjack theory and packed it up with my gear. My new poker career had been put on involuntary suspension, so now was the perfect time to break it out and study.
As it turns out, blackjack suits my personality. Instead of competing against other people, success at blackjack would be determined by only my skill. In theory, it’s possible to play a mathematically perfect game, unlike poker. But the only way to do that is by counting, and that takes practice.
THE SIMPLEST SYSTEM
In the Army we were taught a concept called KISS – Keep It Simple, Stupid. There are many card counting systems out there of varying complexity. Generally, the more difficult the system, the more accurate it is. But there’s a problem.
Normally the house advantage is very small, only a couple of percentage points. What a counting system does is allow you to gain information about the cards yet to be dealt. Knowing this lets you flip the advantage in your favor. Now you’ll have an edge over the dealer by a percentage point or two. You still won’t win every hand, but on average you’ll take home a small percentage of everything you bet in the long run.
This, however, takes a lot of bets. It wouldn’t be strange to see a professional put in 8-12 hours at a stretch, almost like a regular job. It also takes concentration, and concentration takes energy. The more difficult a system is, the more difficult it’ll be for you to use it for a long time without making mistakes.
In blackjack, mistakes cost money. It does no good to use a fancy counting system, just to throw the extra money away because you can’t use it consistently.
IT’S OFF TO WORK WE GO
The simplest blackjack counting system is called Hi-Lo. It works like this:
Start at zero. Watch every card dealt.
If you see…
… add one point for each. In other words, add 1 for the two of hearts, 1 for the three of clubs, 1 for the four of diamonds, 1 for the five of spades, and 1 for the six of diamonds, for a total count of 5.
If you see…
… do nothing. Each of these cards is worth zero.
If you see…
… subtract one. One point for each of these cards is a count of -5.
Continue doing this for every card dealt. Don’t forget to include the cards of the dealer and other players. If it’s face down, like the dealer’s hole card, ignore it until he turns it up at the end of the hand.
What you’re looking for is a high positive count. This tells you that most of the low cards are already out of play and a lot of face cards are still waiting to come out. When this happens it means you’re more likely to draw high cards and beat the dealer who has to stand on 17.
But it’s ok if the count goes negative, too. It simply means that the shoe has more low cards than high, a situation that’s not in your favor. I’ll tell you more about this in a minute.
Be sure to keep the running count in your head even after play ends. The count is valid as long as there are still cards in the shoe. When the dealer finally shuffles the shoe, it will be time to reset your count, but not before.
TO BET OR NOT TO BET
You don’t make money by winning more hands. You have no control over that. The advantage comes from the bet. Betting big when the count is high and betting small when the count is low is the way to beat the house.
But it’s important to understand the difference between the running count and the true count. The running count is what we already talked about. It’s the number that goes up and down as the cards are dealt. The true count, on the other hand, is what tells us how many high cards versus low cards are still in the shoe waiting to be dealt.
The true count is calculated by dividing the running count by the approximate number of decks remaining in the shoe. A five dollar table at a typical casino generally uses a six-deck shoe. As the game progresses, the cards in the shoe are played and then discarded. Professional players are good at keeping the running count, but also at estimating the number of decks remaining in the shoe.
Remember, a fresh shoe doesn’t give any information about the cards because there’s no count yet. Therefore, only make minimum bets. However, as the cards are played, raise the bets in tandem with the rising true count. If the count goes negative, go back to the minimum.
TRAINING COMPLETE
For weeks I sat alone on my cot counting down decks in my spare time. First singles, then doubles, triples, and quads. I practiced to the point where every time I saw playing cards anywhere I automatically counted them. It wasn’t long before I could walk by a blackjack table and with a casual glance know the exact count for the hand in play.
But so far it was only theory. I still had to travel back to the States and find a casino to test my new skills. I needed to know if all my effort had paid off. Was it actually possible to make money doing this?
I’d find out soon enough.
To be continued in Part II...