Are you interested in making an investment in Tron, or have you recently invested in Tron? Were you fortunate enough to make that investment prior to 2018, or did you invest somewhere around the 2000 satoshi mark and now find yourself in a slightly nerve-wracking situation? Either way, you probably want to figure out where Tron is heading.
I personally HODL TRX and have been closely following the latest events. This article will provide you with an in-depth update of what has happened over the past few days in the world of Tron, and hopefully that will help you in determining the current situation. In particular, this article will focus on what caused the recent downward trend since Tron had breached 2000 satoshi on January 5th. Finally it will take a look at what's ahead over the next few months.
Where It All Started
On January 5th Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, tweeted about his upcoming weekly live stream, in which he intended to update on “the latest partnership, and tech development”.
Many within the social media community interpreted this statement as Justin saying that he will be announcing the latest Tron partnership in that live stream. In the hours prior to the live stream there was a considerable amount of hype and speculation around which partnership will be announced.
This is despite Justin stating in a previous tweet from January 3rd that a partnership announcement would only be announced “next week”.
Due to overhyped expectations the live stream turned out a perceived flop, despite Justin confirming that he had been approached by at least 5 Fortune 500 companies.
At this point the value of TRX had been seeking a new support level around 1300 satoshi. Subsequently to the live stream it started plummeting significantly, finally finding some support around 900 satoshi at the end of the 6th of January.
Since then, and until the end of the 7th of January, TRX had been hovering around the 900 satoshi mark. A rumour that stated Justin Sun had sold 6 Billion of his TRX shares was a contributing factor to TRX staying around this level.
Reddit Rumour
On January 6th a Reddit post was created where the author claimed to have discovered a $6 Billion TRX sell out. This post created so much attention, that eventually Charlie Lee, the founder of Litecoin, asked Justin Sun to make a statement in relation to the claims. Justin replied within minutes, rejecting the claims and providing an explanation.
He further elaborated.
Charlie Lee apologised and deleted his initial tweet. Still the rumour persisted and not everyone was aware of Justin’s response from the get go. In essence, the reddit post created further uncertainty around Tron. In fact, because there is no hard evidence that rejects Justin’s involvement in the sell out, uncertainty still continues. In my view, Justin’s word is sufficient as proof, especially given the numerous well known backers of Tron including Jack Ma, all of whom put considerable emphasis on their reputation.
Korean Coinrail Lists TRX
The rumour slowly subsided, and from the night of January 7th to January 8th TRX had it’s first breakout past 1100 satoshi with a ceiling of around 1250 satoshi. In part this upswing may have been influenced by the anticipation of the upcoming listing of TRX on the South Korean exchange Coinrail.
Once TRX was live on Coinrail, investors realised that the impact was close to zero, which in turn lowered confidence in Tron. What some didn’t realise was that Coinrail has a relatively low volume of trades. For instance, Binance (accounting for over 75% of overall TRX trades in volume) currently has a 24h volume of over $1.2 Billion for TRX, whereas Coinrail’s 24h trading volume was just over $70 Million for all coins listed prior to the arrival of TRX.
Tron Whitepaper
At the same time, questions were raised about the legitimacy of Tron’s whitepaper.
Again the community did not have to wait long for Justin Sun’s reply.
I remain optimistic that the San Francisco office will help in creating a more nuanced dialog between Tron and the Western World. Still, I believe it is important to stay in the loop on further developments relating to the legitimacy of Tron's whitepaper.
What Lies Ahead
Despite a few tumultuous days, Tron has plenty in the pipeline for the near future.
Tron Dogs
Tron already announced it’s first game in partnership with game.com.
There seems to be a sentiment coming from Western commentators that this is not going to be a big hit, yet I think it might very well prove successful. In essence, Tron Dogs is going to be an improved spin off from Cryptokitties, something that could easily catch on in the Asian markets. The fact that 2018 is the year of the dog in China also cannot hurt.
Partnership Announcement
The actual announcement of at least one major Tron partnership can be expected by 14th of January. There still is a lot of hype and speculation about this partnership announcement. There are some clues which point to a potential partnership between Alibaba and Tron. For instance, Trons’ newly announced San Francisco offices are in very close proximity to those of Alibaba.
And then there is some evidence in Tron’s github repository, which suggests a link to Alibaba.
Others believe that a partnership with Tencent (Naspers) or Electronic Arts could be announced. If expectations are met, and Tron will announce a partnership with one of these major companies, it is highly likely that there will be a strong positive influence on the value of TRX. However, if the announcement doesn't live up to expectations, it is more likely that Tron remains at it’s current level or drops further.
Further Down The Line
Tron is going to announce more exchange listings by the end of January, there will be a Coinburn of 20% by the end of March and Tron’s mainnet is scheduled for the end of Q1.
Conclusion
These last few days have highlighted how much influence perceived value and sentiment can have on a cryptocurrency. The recent surge in value attracted many inexperienced investors who wanted a piece of the pie. When the uptrend stopped and uncertainty increased, these investors quickly got weak hands, which resulted in wild price fluctuations. I believe it likely that the upcoming partnership announcement will satisfy expectations, which in turn will push the value of Tron up considerably. However Tron is still in it’s early stages, and given it’s big vision Tron is more suited as a long-term HODL.
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