The conflict between the Somaliland army and militias associated with the Dhulbahante people in Las Anod, the capital of Somaliland's Sool region, has been ongoing since February. The Dhulbahante have expressed their desire to join Somalia instead of being governed by Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991. The violence threatens the stability of Somaliland, and immediate action is needed to prevent further escalation.
To address the situation, a ceasefire should be established to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid. Once a truce is in place, discussions should be held to determine the future administrative status of Sool. It is important to ensure that both sides have credible representatives at the negotiating table. The Dhulbahante should appoint an inclusive leadership team for the negotiations, and Somaliland should hold its overdue presidential election to restore local legitimacy to its governing elite.
The conflict in Las Anod stems from deep-seated grievances of the Dhulbahante, who have long sought an alternative administrative arrangement due to their unease with the dominance of the Isaaq clan in Somaliland. Efforts by the Somaliland government to improve relations with the Dhulbahante have been insufficient, leading to their rejection of Somaliland's state-building project.
The assassination of a Dhulbahante opposition member in Las Anod triggered the current wave of violence. Both sides have blamed each other for the conflict, with Hargeisa accusing external actors and framing it as driven by Al-Shabaab insurgency. However, theregarding allegations of external support, however, seem exaggerated, with the Dhulbahante primarily receiving assistance from allied Darod/Harti clans in Somalia.
Efforts to establish a ceasefire and truce have been unsuccessful so far. Clan elders and international representatives have tried to mediate, but meaningful involvement from Somali actors faces challenges from elites in Hargeisa. The Dhulbahante demand the withdrawal of Somaliland forces from their territory, while Somaliland has conditioned a truce on Puntland pulling back its forces.
There are concerns that the conflict may escalate further, with both sides recruiting additional fighters. If the conflict expands beyond Las Anod and becomes a broader clan confrontation, it could spread unrest to other parts of Somaliland and Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab could also exploit the crisis to extend its influence in the region.
The conflict in Las Anod jeopardizes Somaliland's pursuit of international recognition and its efforts to build democratic institutions and long-term stability. It has already led to a decrease in foreign government contacts with Somaliland, particularly in terms of security cooperation.
A ceasefire is the highest priority to prevent further bloodshed. Both sides should gradually withdraw their forces and address concerns about external forces. The Dhulbahante should reopen the blocked road to Somaliland to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid. An international organization can play a monitoring role in the progress of the truce.
Once a ceasefire is in place, delegations from both sides should be selected to engage in negotiations. The Dhulbahante leadership should form an inclusive team that can represent their interests, considering the various power centers within the community. Somaliland's politicians should agree on a roadmap for the presidential and political party elections to ensure a legitimate and supported government.
International partners, including the US, UK, EU, UAE, Djibouti, and Ethiopia, should exert unified pressure on both sides to find a peaceful solution. They can emphasize the potential economic investments that may be lost without progress. The immediate steps are a durable ceasefire and holding the delayed elections in Hargeisa.the ore info via Crisis Group