Hi Everyone,

Brexit has been extended for a third time. This extension has occurred despite a deal being reached with the European Union. This deal was reached on the 17th October, which is very close to the Brexit day of the 31st October. On the 19th October, the deal was taken back to the House of Commons to be voted on. This day was dubbed Super Saturday and the first time the British House of Commons has sat on a Saturday since 1982. However, the deal was not voted on. Instead, an extension was requested so that more time could be given to discuss and possibly amend the deal.

Considering the deal was made only 2 days before the house met on Saturday, it could be argued that the Brexit deal deserved more time to be discussed. However, the Brexit deal that was agreed on with the European Union has been considered by many to about 95% the same as the previous deals, which have been discussed and considered at length. The main difference in the deal relates to Northern Ireland and the previously proposed backstop.

The backstop would have resulted in the United Kingdom being tied to European Union rules and regulations indefinitely in order to enable freedom of movement and trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The new deal, in sort, solves this problem by creating a customs border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. However, the physical customs border will be between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Northern Ireland will remain part of the United Kingdom’s customs union but will follow, in part, European Union laws and regulation for some goods. Also, some goods that are moving from Great Britain to just Northern Ireland will also need to go through customs procedures if they are deemed ‘at risk’ of moving into the Republic of Ireland (BBC). This new arrangement has received some criticism, as it is likely to create a divide between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

Another major criticism of the new deal is the arrangement for a ‘level playing field’ in relation to standards. In doing so, this keeps the United Kingdom in line with European Union standards. Therefore, the United Kingdom will continue to follow European Union social, environmental, and workers’ rights legislation. The United Kingdom will also remain in line with the European Union in regards to defence and security matters (express.co). This will affect future policy decisions of the United Kingdom Government. This could also affect the United Kingdom’s ability to make deals with countries outside the European Union.

It is also important to remember that the Brexit deal is just a withdrawal agreement. The full Brexit process could take many more years to be completely finalised. Trade deals will be discussed for at least the next year but more likely for 3 or 4 years. Laws, regulations and policies will also be reviewed and revised once or if the United Kingdom makes a full break from the European Union.

Where are we now?

Now that an extension has been granted, a General Election has been called. It appears the majority of the United Kingdom Parliament believe a General Election is necessary to bring functionality back to Government. I think the best-case scenario is a less dysfunctional Government but that is certainly not guaranteed. The Conservative Party want an election, as they are currently ineffective at getting anything through parliament and believe that they would win a majority, which would make life considerably easier for them. The Conservative Party have a strong lead in opinion polls but their popularity has had some quite large swings in recent times as can be seen from Figure 1.

Figure 1: Party Popularity

Source: The Conversation accessed 30/10/2019

The popularity of the Conservative Party appears inverse to the popularity of the Brexit Party. After Theresa May failed to bring the United Kingdom out of the European Union on 30th March 2019, the popularity of the Conservative Party plummeted and the popularity of the Brexit Party skyrocketed. Shortly after, the popularity of the Labour Party dipped as the Liberal Democrat Party climbed. After Theresa May quit as Prime Minister, the popularity of the Conservative Party climbed sharply and the popularity of the Brexit Party dropped sharply. The popularity of both Liberal Democrats and Labour Parties has remained reasonably constant since the rise of the Conservative Party.

The polls clearly indicate that Brexit is dividing the country rather than left-wing or right-wing politics. The Conservative and the Brexit Parties pledge support for Brexit and the Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Green Parties are opposing Brexit. Based on these polls, the number of people supporting the Brexit parties roughly equals the number of people supporting the anti-Brexit parties.

A poll on the (BBC) website further supports the idea that Brexit is the key issue that will influence votes for the upcoming election.

Figure 2: Election Main Issues

Source: BBC accessed 30/10/2019

A General Election is intended to be about a very wide range of issues regarding the country. Brexit is one issue and the decision whether the United Kingdom leaves or remains should have been decided in the 2016 Referendum and not reopened for debate in 2019. The only matter of debate should be how Brexit is achieved and delivered and not whether it should be delivered or not.

What do I make of all this?

When I first heard about the Brexit Referendum, I was quite excited. Remaining or leaving in the European Union is a very important question. Bringing the question to the people, at the time, seemed like a great opportunity for people to have a real say on this matter (my opinion of such referendums has changed, I will explain later in the post). I did not expect ‘Leave’ to win. The campaigning and the polls gave a strong impression that ‘Remain’ would be the outcome. When ‘Leave’ won, I was delighted. I was also aware that there were going to be some difficult times ahead. I knew the European Union would not be happy about the United Kingdom leaving. I knew many of the ‘Remainer’ Members of Parliament would be unwilling to support Brexit to its end. I did not expect level of chaos in parliament to reach the level it has. I did not expect the United Kingdom Parliament to obstruct Brexit more than the European Union.

I have believed that the agenda of the United Kingdom Parliament is to stop Brexit at all cost. I believed that the 2016 Brexit Referendum was seen as a big mistake that needed to be rectified. I still believe that stopping Brexit is an agenda of parliament but I no longer believe it is the core objective. I believe the bigger objective is to get people voting. The British people have become disenfranchised and disinterested in the British democratic process. Regardless of which party forms Government, very little seems to change. Figure 3 contains the voter turnout for General Elections from over the past 100 years. Figure 4 contains a breakdown of voter turnout from the various countries that make up the United Kingdom.

Figure 3: General Election Turnout

Source: Parliament UK accessed 31/10/2019

Figure 4: General Election Turnout by Country since 1950

Source: UK Political Info accessed 31/10/2019

In 2001, the turnout dropped below 60% for the first time in recent history. The average turnout for a General Election in the previous hundred years was approximately 73% (Parliament UK). Since 2001, the turnout has increased but is still well below average. However, the turnout for the Brexit Referendum was 72.2% (BBC), which is roughly the same as the average General Election turnout and more than 6% higher than the General Election just a year earlier. Brexit appears to be a topic that people are passionate about and believe their voice is important. The 19th October People’s Vote March, which has been estimated to involve as many as a million people (The New European) is a strong indication of how passionate some people are about the Brexit issue. Despite this being a winter election, I expect the voter turnout to be higher than the previous elections in this millennium.

My view on referendums

I do not believe referendums on a scale as large and as wide as the Brexit Referendum are useful. People in different regions who face different circumstances are affected very differently from events such as Brexit. I explain in my post, ‘Could democracy succeed if it was given a chance?’, the advantages and disadvantages of referendums. In this post, I refer to the Brexit in regards to the manipulation of people to vote a particular way. These tactics could greatly affect the outcome of the referendum. This is even truer when there is unreliable and very limited information for people to use to make decisions.

My prediction

In my post, ‘Brexit confusion continues’, I made a few predictions about what I believed would happen with Brexit. Currently, my prediction appears to be on track. I began the predication as follows:

Despite Boris Johnson claiming that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union on the 31st October, I believe he or someone else from the Government will request an extension. The European Union will accept this extension. I am predicting shortly after the extension request, there will be a vote of no confidence in the current Government. This will lead to a General Election before the end of 2019.

The vote of ‘no confidence’ part was off but we arrived where I expected. The next part of my prediction goes as follows:

Failure to bring the United Kingdom out of the European Union will result in a plunge in the popularity of the Conservative Party with many voters switching to the Brexit Party. I believe the result of the election will lead to a hung parliament. The Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, and Green Party will form a coalition Government.

I think the Conservative Party will win the most seats but will be unable to form a coalition with any of the other parties. We should know if this part of my prediction is correct by the end of the year.

Conclusion

We are in very strange times. I feel the objectives of Governments are no different than they have been for decades. However, the approach has somewhat changed. The old differences between left-wing and right-wing political views have become stale. Many parties ended up taking close to central policies that differed very little. The public have become aware of this and have started to oppose the system. Brexit has created a fresh divide. Party positions appear to actually matter and likely outcomes can be seen to be visibly different.

This is not a phenomenon unique to the United Kingdom. Politics in the United States of America has also taken a different approach. The arrival of Donald Trump has created an establishment vs. anti-establishment battle. Donald Trump is playing the role of the anti-establishment leader (I say role, as I see very little sincerity behind it). The 2018, midterm elections indicates that this approach could be working. The voter turnout increased from just 41.9% in 2014 to 53.4% in 2018 (United States Census Bureau). The 2020, presidential election turnout will be interesting. I am expecting it to be higher than 2016.

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