2018 TROPICAL UPDATE TROPICAL LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Good morning everyone. You're looking at a special Tropical Update and long range discussion of our tropical weather as things are starting to get a little more active as expected. If you're looking for an update on your Labor Day holiday weekend, things are holding steady forecast-wise, and you can click here to get all of the details I laid out yesterday.
TWO FEATURES IN PLAY
As of this moment, we have two new features in play as things become a little bit more active. First for the elephant in the room, feature #1. An intense wave exited Africa and into the western Atlantic, where it has found favorable conditions for development; which we essentially haven't seen all summer. This will most likely become Tropical Storm Florence and continue on its WNW course.
As far as dangers to the Caribbean or East Coast, I'm not thinking that way for now. While it's entering a favorable area for development, there's an old front draped across the middle Atlantic ocean and could potentially pick the system up, go way north of the Windward Island, and steered out to sea. We'll be keeping a close eye on it though as it'll probably wind up being the strongest system this season thus far. All in all, when systems develop this soon off of Africa, the odds are against it making it all this way. Very few with early development have made the complete trip intact, but we will watch regardless for any changes.
The next concern is feature #2. This is a tropical wave moving westward and a tick north-westward from the eastern Caribbean. As of now, it's interacting with land and high mountainous areas, so quick development is unlikely. However, it could cross through the southern tip of Florida and into the gulf and thats when things may get interesting. The Gulf is notorious for explosive development if anything enters it this time of year, but theres also a chance it'll move across central Florida and dash any chance of development.
With this system, Florida is in no imminent danger. Most likely it'll bring troughy, squally, tropical conditions into the area sometime between Tuesday and Thursday; with scattered heavy thunderstorms and breezy conditions.
With summer holding on, but also a mix of maritime influence in between warm to hot periods, the East Coast is a concern to me for any hypothetical development. The first scenario is what we're seeing play out pattern-wise for our Friday and Saturday in New York City. The type of weather we're seeing now would actually protect the Northeast, but it could drive any potential system into the coast from Cape Hatteras on south to Florida. Also, the Gulf coast would be a concern from any development sourced in the Gulf itself and/or the lower Caribbean.
Here is the pattern that concerns me the most. As we go through these late summer very warm to hot periods, or what will become relatively warm to relatively hot periods, high pressure off of the coast and prevailing winds could send any hypothetical system up the coast, into the Southeast, or anywhere along the Gulf. Timing is key, but any development timed with this type of pattern, would open up the entire coastline for a possible landfalling Hurricane, Tropical Storm, or Depression.
Remember, as of now there are NO immediate threats. We have along way to go for (potential) Florence and the wave moving though the Caribbean just needs some watching. Our concern is a tropical season growing more active, combined with areas of favorable development, and weather patterns conducive for opening up our coastline if timed right with a system.
Stay tuned as we watch all of these features play out.
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