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Models Continue To Disagree On Immediate Coast & Where Heaviest Snow Sets Up
Good morning everyone. I was hoping this morning we'd have some better answers as to how this whole thing is going to go down on Wednesday & Thursday, but some big questions still remain unanswered. That being said, we do know that this feature isn't going anywhere, and we also have a better idea in terms of precip timing.
First we have to get through today's system. This one will bring us a relatively light period of precip, featuring rain at first, then a mix of rain and snow from early afternoon, onward. For the NYC area and Long Island, little to no accumulation is expected. However, areas of NW NJ in the higher elevations, may see 1-3" out of this. High temps are what you see now (near 40), and we'll be dropping into the 30's as the day goes on.
Tomorrow is looking sunny and chilly, with highs near 40 and lows to in the low to mid 20's overnight. That means we have plenty of cold air in the area for Wednesday, but it all comes down to the final track.
We cloud up tomorrow night and into early Wednesday, and we'll have a generally dry and chilly day. You'll feel that "snow in the air" as we only get into the mid 30's and that NE wind starts to increase.
I think at this point we remain dry into late afternoon/eve before we see light snow develop. This means that the commute home may not be impacted at all or a minor impact. Snow will increase in intensity and become more widespread as we enter the nighttime hours.
This here is where the models are having some issues and disagreements. Coastal NJ, the south shore of Long Island, and the Forks may see some mixing as the precip becomes more intense. The GFS keeps low pressure further away from the area, and keeping the entire event almost all snow for even coastal sections. The Canadian model has it a little closer, which means coastal NJ and Long Island would be dancing on that rain/snow line, and the NAM has our low pressure way too close, bringing mixed precip and rain all over Long Island and into NYC.
The GFS also has our heaviest snow band shifting south and east, giving interior central NJ and SE PA the heaviest snow out of this, whereas the EURO and Canadian keep things to our NW as far as heaviest snow. The NAM is a mess and has the heaviest snow in NW NJ and NE PA.
I'm going to continue to hold off on snow amounts and maps, but I think we can get rid that 30" of snow talk in general. I'm going to go with a general 12-18" of snowfall for those who see the heaviest snow, and we're going to have to wait another day to see where that sets up.
I think we all go to snow Thursday AM if there is mixing, so we'll end it as snow, then partial clearing will ensue later in the day for a cold & blustery one.
Friday will help the melt a bit on shoveled surfaces, and we'll have sunshine with mid to upper 30's.
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
Posted from my blog with SteemPress : https://www.nycweathernow.com/models-continue-to-disagree-on-immediate-coast-where-heaviest-snow-sets-up/