My predictions held true for the first trimester of 2017. Predicted perfectly a peak of $1,350. During the second trimester though (April - May and June) we have seen my —very conservative estimations— completely break, as Bitcoin has reached over $2800 (more than twice the peak we saw in the first trimester). The surge is driven by the increasing number of ICOs and token sales that tend to only accept Bitcoin and/or Ethereum.
On rational estimates, assuming no big hacks or general bad news, I think it will reach a peak of $1,350 and go as low as $540. Don’t ask me why. I’ve been following the price for a long time, and it comes down as intuitive to me to predict these numbers, I myself don’t know exactly why, but it has to do with its high volatility which is decreasing. For the next year, 2017, I can tell you for certain, these basic principles will factor in:
A. Bad indicators:
• Likely: Hacks on exchanges or wallets. News about the loss of bitcoin in exchanges. will deteriorate the trust holders have on Bitcoin itself, speculators will automatically sell (because they were in it to profit, and will panic), day traders and smarter speculators will sell as well. Very long-term holders like hardcore Bitcoiners, hardcore libertarians, hedge funds and people who aren’t paying attention will keep. All of this will be reflected in a steep price decline with a slight chance of fast recovery. Since the Bitcoin trading market isn’t mature enough, I predict we won’t see rapid price recoveries yet, so in this scenario we would see a steep price decline after the hack, followed by a rest of year with low prices, and the start of a slow upwards trend after hitting bottom ($300s). Why do I categorize this scenario as “likely”? The players in the Bitcoin economy are still immature and new, we have seen major hacks every year since 2013.
• Likely: Over-regulation. Bitcoin is seen as a financial haven, therefore anything that risks its status will make the price fall down. Regulation on cryptography, blockchain, Bitcoin or general banking will affect the price negatively shifting momentum to alternatives such as Monero and Zcash. So watch those. These news tend to cause downwards price chance, but have a lower impact, because most Bitcoiners think Bitcoin’s technical design make it nearly impossible to regulate. In fact the Internet as a whole is too hard to regulate no matter how big or strong the country, it’s akin to regulating the world’s freedoms of expression, choice and privacy.