With BTC prices hitting a major support level just above 6k it is worthwhile to ask:
Is now the time to buy?
The answer to this is question is perhaps not as clear as we would like it to be. At present, I see no reason to say "the market has finished with capitulation". Yet, at present, I see no reason to say the market should go dramatically lower.
In other words, a sideways see-saw market for the summer is what I am expecting to see at this point.
The only way we would conclude "now is the time to buy" is if we were very certain that the 6k support level holds, and we were also very certain that the market will propel higher with vigor and speed. I believe there is better than a 50% chance that the market holds the 6k support level. I might put the odds at 60% which is not amazing odds. But it is the second condition where I do not anticipate that the market will propel higher with vigor and speed to previous market highs. I would put the odds of this at about 20%. I believe it is more likely we have a sideways see-saw motion, or just a new low.
To put it more plainly, for how I see the present market:
20% chance the market propels to prior market highs
60% chance the market goes sideways until fall
20% chance the market tanks below 6k BTC price
In other words, for long-term investing, there is only a 20% chance investing at this point will be profitable over the next 3 months. Certainly, I expect a bounce in the market. As a trader, a person might buy now, put in a tight stop-loss and wait, and then sell when the market hits 8k BTC again.
As a long-term investor though, this strategy may not be worth it. A person who buys now, may buy and ride BTC (and the market) up to 8k, but then ride it back down to 6k or even lower. I also favor that it may not be worth selling anything at this point as well. I sold some holdings at 10k BTC, but now I am not looking at selling, only buying if the market decides to really crash below 6k BTC.
The Sensible Position
Wait and see.
Waiting and seeing what happens seems best to me. If the market decides to go for the recovery where it is going to speedily head higher, this should be identifiable to us during the price rises. We should see a renewed market attitude with a great deal of skepticism, rather than a hopeful bounce that is unlikely to hold. Waiting and seeing avoids any unlikely (but possible) major crashes lower. Waiting and seeing does not have us buying into market doldrums of no activity. I'm willing to miss a 10% or 20% move in price if it means I am buying at the right time, rather than buying at a time that is seemingly not opportune.