Price: ~ $9,700
24HR:
After testing for the 125 EMA ($10.3K) for 5th time in 6 days, BTC finally broke it today, this area will be resistance on the wake back up if further testing is not needed. If further testing is needed the confluence of supports around $9K (Tenkan, 200 EMA, & 1 Fib) will be next destination.
12HR:
Mentioned in yesterday’s update was potential pullback to the bottom of the 12HR cloud if the Tenkan did not hold as support. Now that this pullback has begun, more pullback to the bottom of the cloud or Kijun are not out of question, these too are a confluence of support around $9K.
6 HR:
The Bear div & potential H&S that were developing from yesterday’s update have begun to play out. Price currently trying to find support on top of the cloud & Kijun, if price is unable to hold here, next support is at bottom of cloud also around $9K.
EMA Cross Follow-up:
Finally I’ve been following the 25 (fastest) & 100 (medium) EMA cross that BTC recently experienced, that has been similar to the 2013 & 2014 pullbacks. In today’s edition, the 100 EMA continues to be tough resistance for BTC to conquer & price re-broke the 25 EMA, with EMA beginning slight tilt down. However, it’s not necessarily cause for concern just yet; notice in 2013, there were pullback retests to the 200 EMA. Also unless the 25 EMA re-crosses with the other EMA’s, BTC is currently leaning more 2013, than 2014.
Prognosis:
For the better part of a month BTC found itself on extreme ends of price movement, with either the continual pullback to $6K, followed by the strong bounce back to $11K. However, BTC is finally beginning to slow down & trying to find equilibrium between these ranges. For Bulls to reverse the current wave, they’ll have to begin by re-capturing the 125 EMA ($10.3K). Otherwise, many indicators point to a retest around $9K.
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