Depending on the time period and the whales you just might be right. Everyone is exited because we've been ticking up but it's not sustainable without the halving.

Here is the trend I've been using. It's an overlay with the previous cycle price action (previous price on the secondary axes). There is a lot of whale action this cycle compared to previous cycle. I can just image the whale wars that went down. Without these wars we would have seen something like the graph below.

Cleaned up looks like this.