So here's a shot of today's btc chart. It's in a text-book elliott wave triple combo correction, down to the major support line at 7400.
In My opinion Btc needs to consolidate for a good amount of time before it rallies over 10k and then to all-time highs. While I see btc going over 20k this year, I have reason to believe that an alt-coin, probably Eth will take over BTC's 30%+ dominance. It's just a matter of time, and now with BTC failing to rally over 10k it's giving that opportunity.
If you take market psychology into consideration, the reason we rallied over 10k in the past and then went parabolic to 20k in 2017 was hype. There was no functional reason why Btc should rally that high, no new tech or use case scenarios came out, so it was all hype basically, that's how markets work. Big financial institutions and Investment funds also had something to do with the rally because it seemed like the perfect short with the launching on BTC futures at the end of 2017. So last year's rally and crash seemed very well planned out and now people are expecting another rally any time soon. In my opinion, it's like lighting doesn't strike the same place twice. Btc will rally to all time highs, but I believe that it won't rally until we forget about it for a while, shift attention to another coin (chosen by the powers that be) and watch that rally 10-20x or more in 2018, then rinse and repeat for 2019- Market crash in January and we pick up the pieces from there.
I don't see the hype necessary to push btc over 10k right now, it's been losing traction since January, and now BTC and crypto enthusiasts are convinced, lighting will strike the same place again but It doesn't work that way. We don't have the type of global hype we need for another btc bull run, so the market will shift it's attention to something new, then btc will rally later on. I say that not just because of the psychological factors but also because of the tech and the geo-political climate we're in.
Why should the highest market cap be placed in a store of value coin like btc? I see the market placing that dominance in a smart contract platform like Ethereum, Eos or Cardano. Each with their flaws, I see them as having more functional uses than purely store of value. News travels fast in this digital age, so people know about the slow transaction times and the high operational costs of btc in terms of transaction fees, and mining. Ripple also has the potential of overtaking btc because of it's potential of integrating with our current centralized banking system. Micro payments and low transaction fees make it ideal for that role.
At the end of the day, the market will decide so be ready for the unexpected to happen in 2018, I don't think BTC will be first to the finish line this time around.
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