Much has been reported, speculated and talked about such a "futures market" of Bitcoin, including here in the Criptomoedas Fácil, in which we have repeatedly reported ads for exchanges all over the world that are or intend to list the criptomoeda as a trading asset . It is undeniable that the fact that the inclusion of Bitcoin in some of the world's largest derivatives exchanges offers the digital currency a unique and incredible institutional credibility. Already, such figures as Karl Marx and Adam Smith have said, economics is the basis of social construction and, from the organization of it, social "webs" are constructed, thus a recognition of the currency by large economic players is as if it were a certificate of credibility for the digital currency, so criticized by governments and orthodox economists today.
As everyone knows, the market has no religion or ideology, it interests everything that can be capitalized, monetized and turned into profit, whether it be a shirt with Che Guevara's face or business self-help books, it's all business . Are the bulls on Wall Street really interested in the idea of Bitcoin and in all its philosophy, or are they just developing a way to make more money? For the average investor, the one who counts his money and spends hours in the daily trade looking to convert his profit into more satoshis, what can this future market mean? An article by Lanre Sarumi, published by Coindesk, a crypto news agency, tries to answer some of these questions.
According to Lanre, not only whales can be devoured by such a future, but any other smaller crustacean that chooses to ignore the potential impact that a derivative market may have on an underlying commodity. You see, in the cash market, the day-to-day buying and selling market, the "Bitcoins whales" swim among other Bitcoin marine lives without necessarily attacking their co-inhabitants. The reason is simple: everyone in the cash market is financially encouraged to keep the price of Bitcoin high. But in the futures market there is so much rewards for creatures in every layer, either bottom or top, and tremendous wealth can be created in a falling market, as it can be in a growing market. There are incentives on both sides.
Essentially, Bitcoin's cash market is like a river. Its flow is dependent on constants and therefore usually flows in one direction. The future Bitcoin market, on the other hand, is like an ocean with thermohalian circulation (deep ocean circulation): its flow depends on many variables. Marine life in the futures market is not so friendly. The waters are infested with killer whales. Predators that feed on other whales or even feed on themselves.
So much optimism with the debut of the currency in futures markets may not necessarily mean an increase in the value of Bitcoin in the "cash market", after all, as we envisage, both markets are diametrically opposed, the big difference, to simplify, is that in the cash market, exchanges for example, are filled by optimists, while the members of futures are pessimistic.
Put another way, the cash markets were created for investors, while the futures market was created for risk protection. Investors go to the cash markets because they believe the value of assets will increase. In the future market the motivation is another, they enter because they do not want the price of certain asset to move against them. For example, a corn farmer sells a futures contract because he fears the price will fall and want to secure a price for his corn while he eventually harvests. Already a manufacturer that uses corn buys a futures contract because it fears that the price of corn will increase. Both buyers and sellers, in their own way, are pessimistic.
So, unlike the cash market, where there is actual buying and selling of a "good", in the futures market it's all pure market speculation, with ballast in a "good" future. Bitcoin will certainly face a strong "test" that comes from its own success. In the future market, it does not matter what the scalability of the network, the solutions of Blockchain, the Chinese miners or even if the currency may or may not become a reserve of value, it matters in fact it is only the bets, in low. There is no whale that can not be swallowed by a lambari if it is not attentive to the movement of the tides.
Can bears dominate the bulls? And vice versa? Nobody knows. Will the introduction of futures lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin? Nobody knows for sure, after all in the universe of crypto-coins it is unlikely to be sure of anything. What is clear is that if you currently own Bitcoin, just drifting in this new ocean that opens may not be the best strategy. The important thing is to be aware on the coming 10 and 18 December, as much can change in the creation of Nakamoto.