Finally, there was a little pump in the market, which resulted in my portfolio gaining +33% this month. I also closed my bitfinex long in profit. Here is the lastest screenshot of the position:
Portfolio
When it comes to the amount of BTC i hold, to make things clear, it's not 100%, but rather BTC + low value dust on my ledger and exchanges (some LTC, ETH and USDT). It's just not convinient for me to list all of them. So I'm just adjusting the quantity of BTC in order to match the total value. I'm also using this dust to pay for my ETH node operation.
Market thoughts
As I said, we finally had a little rally. In my opinion, this would happen much earlier if not the FTX crash. My prediction for now is that we will trend higher in the following months.
The base scenario for me right now is trapping noobs into "another cycle". What I mean by that is a lot of people will start to re-enter the market, hoping that what we just witnessed was the cycle low, and we are heading towards next ATH in the following year or two (basically having another 4-year cycle).
So what might actually happen? In my opinion, noobs will be trapped somewhere around half way into ATH, and then dumped on heavily. I can imagine something like this:
For now, eventhough we are overbought short-term, there is a lot of room to go up, as long-term indicators barely moved, and from the macro perspective, current levels are still extremely low.
