On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, I have been tracking an up-trending pitchfork that has been capturing the pricing action nicely within 1 standard deviation. Even though the bears firmly denied the uptrend breakout with yesterday’s wick and red candle, price is not in bad shape.
The issue could have been due to the Bitmex maintenance issues that handcuffed the bears at the time, and price just reverted to the mean. Bitcoin also had to survive the news of several ETF derivative rejections, but the news had much less of an effect on price than it did just a few weeks ago.
From the high of $8,390 on July 24th price has retraced over .884 near that pink line at $6,061 to a low of $5,858. This has been a good stabilization level and good news for the bulls who did not give way to another 2018 low for price.
Right now price is back at the bottom of the pitchfork and consolidating around the blue $6,275 resistance/support line. There is a decent chance that price swings back to the other edge of this pitchfork, where it’s currently is a weak bull trend.
The purple lines running down across the chart are key support and resistance lines over the past few months on the analog and logarithmic chart that will be important going forward as well.
I have identified 4 waves of what could be a leading diagonal structure where it’s possible price grinds higher over the next several days and ends around the wave 5 at $7,200. After that, we would most definitely see another pullback in price. That long term orange up-trending support line would also now provide resistance.
The RSI is currently sitting at 44.52 and relatively neutral, but there is some weak hidden continued bearish divergence. The MACD blue trigger line did crossover the orange EMA line bullishly, with the histogram continuing to tick higher, with is good news for the bulls.
Volume overall is looking good and is improving since the lows back in June and even though, some days have had pretty low volume over the past few weeks, there have also been some big volume volatility days as well. The bulls will want to see volume continue to improve to mark a turn around in prices for the market.
On the weekly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, price has made a big falling wedge between the red resistance line and the lime green support line. The breakout back above the red support line on the week of July 24th spelled a bull trap which sent prices careening back into this wedge.
The falling wedge is typically a bullish pattern that usually needs time to run it’s course. The good news for the bulls is that price hasn’t continued to break downward violently and the $6,000 level has remained as strong buying support.
We have a few days left in the current candle and it appears like price is retesting the red line, finding resistance which would mean the next move would be for the bears to take price down to that lime green for support. I have put a little blue box down there that could be a fantastic buying opportunity around $5,500.
If on the other hand price grinds higher into Sunday and can close back above that $6,712 level. That would be a another great sign for the bulls. Price may continue to ride the red line lower for a few weeks, but it would be another significant resistance level broken as Bitcoin attempt to shed it’s chains.
The RSI is sitting at 44.49 and isn’t giving away much divergence besides some weak bullishness, but it is finding solid support above the typically bearish 40 level.
The MACD looks to be in great shape as that blue trigger line is almost ready to cross back above the orange EMA. Price certainly could continue lower here for other reasons, but a crossover is becoming an inevitable over the next few weeks and would provide solid momentum to the upside when the close happens.
The OBV is relatively stable and I think many people are waiting around for other indicators to buy before any money into the exchange. Time will tell, but there are some positive technical signs blinking.
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