From the birth of Bitcoin to the present, Bitcoin has gone through three stages in the trading cycle: bull market, bear market, and consolidation. Among them, the bull market is a unilateral sharp rise in the market, and the bear market is a unilateral sharp decline in the market. Consolidation is accompanied by various shocks, such as shocks, sideways, pins, etc.
At present, it is in the consolidation market. The entire period of consolidation in the cycle is the longest time, followed by a bear market, and finally a bull market.
The longest cycle in the currency circle is consolidation and bear markets, and these two cycles are the most arduous and the most testable. In these two cycles, there are 10,000 ways to harvest leek, which have plummeted. A series of operations such as waterfalls, inducements, air traps, inserting the needles up and down, sideways, and shocks, the harvesting method is stronger than any capital market, so the currency circle is a leek harvester.
But let's look at it for a long period of time:
From February 2011 to June 18, 2011, Bitcoin rose from $ 1 to a high of $ 32, which was the top of the first bull market at the time. It fell very miserably at the back. You bought it at the top 32 dollars at the time, and you got the next bull market peak: on April 9, 2013, Bitcoin was 230 dollars, and the income was 7.19 times. Taken now, it takes nearly 9 years, and the return is 192 times.
November 18, 2011-April 9, 2013, Bitcoin rose from the bottom of the bear market at $ 2 to the top of $ 230, and it fell very badly at the back, falling by 71%. Similarly, even if you were at the time The highest point of $ 230 was bought, and the next bull market peaked: $ 1,147 on December 4, 2013, with a gain of 4.99 times. Taken now, it took nearly 7 years and the return was 26.6 times.
From July 6, 2013 to December 4, 2013, Bitcoin rose from the bottom of the bear market to $ 66.86 to the top of $ 1147. It fell miserably at the back, with a drop of 85%. Similarly, even if you were at the time I bought at the highest point of $ 1147, and got the next bull market peak: December 17, 1987, $ 5.575, with a return of 17.33 times. Now, it takes nearly 6 years and the return is 5.34 times.
At present, since the peak of the bull market on December 17, 1987, it was 19875.58 US dollars. Until now, it is still in a bear market and consolidation cycle. The highest point is still losing 69.2%.
Summary: From the table and the above analysis, we can easily find two phenomena. The first is that as long as it goes through a complete bull-bear cycle, the top of the next bull market must be about 5 times the top of the previous bull market. The recent 17 The big bull market of the year reached more than ten times the peak of the previous bull market. The second is that in a bear market, consolidation to a bull market time period, the longer the boil time, the higher the multiplier.
From the above table, it is not difficult to find that from the peak of the bull market in 17 years to the bear, until now, the bull market has strengthened the entire currency friends for 461 days.
Suppose we refer to the longest bear market consolidation cycle in the history of Bitcoin, 1039 days, that is, 578 days still need us to boil, if converted to months, that is, June to September 2021 In the time period, it will reach the apex of the next bull market, and this time is similar to the time we have inferred from the Bitcoin halving cycle. We are calculating based on the price multiples from the top of the previous bull market to the top of the next bull market:
Bear market, consolidation, bull market takes 471 days is 7.19 times
Bear market, consolidation, bull market takes 4.99 times 151 days
Bear market, consolidation, bull market takes 10.33 days is 17.33 times
Our current time is 461 days. How many days are left is uncertain, but we can calculate a price:
19875.58 × 7.19 = 142905.4 USD
19875.58 × 4.99 = 99179.15 USD
19875.58 × 17.33 = 351002.74 USD
The first two prices calculated above are a multiple of our previous calculation by halving the bottom price and the bull market top price, and the calculation of the bear market bottom market value and the bull market top market price of the next bull bitcoin: between $ 80,000 and $ 120,000 This is similar to the two above.
The key point is, then according to the calculation above, even if you bought at the peak of the bull market, as long as you get strong at the top of the next bull market, the probability is more than five times that. If you do not forget this period Bottom-sweeping, fixed investment to lower the average price, then more than ten times the return is not a problem. This is also the reason why it is easy to achieve wealth transition by insisting on one cycle in this circle.
So since this is the case, I estimate that there should be very few coin friends who are trapped at the highest point. Why did Bitcoins with 3 words and 4 words with Bitcoins appear in the last few days? Few options to enter?
As retail customers, we do not have a luxurious elite team like the main force. We do n’t have a lot of time dedicated to it, and we do n’t have a lot of funds and accurate data and information to draw on and operate. So our best choice is That time to change the space, that is, when the bear market, the extremely undervalued chips appear in the consolidation cycle, use the free money to continuously buy bottoms, set the investment, soared and decided not to chase, plunged and decided to buy, then hold and wait, that is, In this way, a large number of people have realized the wealth transition. Therefore, the currency circle is also the validator of the myth that realizes the wealth transition.
Dear currency friends, have you made or lost?