Here's some technical analysis on Cardano (ADA) I published last night on TradingView. For updates on this analysis, click the chart above.
Cardano's Wave 4 is likely bottoming at or near the Wolfe Wave trend-line (dashed black line on the chart). The low came a day early to what was optimal, but within the 5-12 days that I expected the retracement to last, and mentioned in the prior Cardano post. Nevertheless, even if the low is in, the correction may end up being more complex, which is fine.
A Wave 5 move up should unfold to the Gann Fan 3/l line (blue downward angled line labeled Elliott Wave V & 5), which is also where the 50% retracement level of the January high to March crash low is, and where an Andrews resistance line (solid black) all meet.
The price area mentioned above should provide very strong time and price resistance. However, should this expected rally have a steeper slope and more volume than the April rally, this wave count might be one degree too low, thus it would more bullish than I currently show.
The low will likely be confirmed if and when Cardano breaks the down channel resistance line (black line closest to current price).
Once the forecasted Wave 5 top is in, I would then expect a larger degree ABC correction down (labeled A B C in red). Then repeat 1-5 back up later in the summer.
NEGATED IF:
This outlook is negated and would then be bearish if ADABTC fails to break the Gann Fan 2/1 line (blue downward sloping line at Elliott Wave 3 area), within 10 days and/or it breaks 0.000027 to the downside.
BUY Idea:
Buy @ 0.00003650 or better (currently @ 0.00003635, probably OK to buy up to 0.000038).
Initial Protective Stop Loss @ 0.000027
Move stop to 0.00003350 if .000040 is reached.
Consider exiting 1/3 position @ 0.000041 and move remaining position stop to break-even.
Wave 5 target is 0.00005264, so exit another 1/3 at 0.000052 and trail stop below 2-3 day low at that point.
If the correction turns out to more complex, as mentioned above, it should be OK with the stop we suggest. (See prior Cardano post from 05/03/18, for zoomed out view).
We will try to let you know if the waves unfold as expected in order to pinpoint the high time and price, or if the outlook becomes more bullish or more bearish .
RATIONALE:
Cardano fell into the Wolfe Wave (Wave 1 - Wave 4 trend-line) target area, which also met the Elliott Wave's prior Wave 4 target area.
The current low was almost exactly at the expected price from the prior post, and 5 days from the top, if you count the top day [actually yesterday since that's when the analysis was published on Tradingview], which was a large range outside bar reversal down.
Volume has declined since the high on 05/03/18, which is expected if this is just a correction. If it was a new bear phase, volume during the sell off should have increased, but It did not. That is bullish.
The sell off of 5 days showed very low momentum. This, plus the declining volume means that the selling was likely almost all just profit taking, with no large short positions. This is also a bullish sign.
TRADER TIP:
A bullish Wolfe Wave support price target line is drawn from the Wave (i) high to the Wave (iv) low (opposite for a bearish Wolf Wave resistance price target line).
In either case, these are supposedly the average minimum price expectation for a pullback or retracement. As always, use this tool prudently along with other supporting/confirming techniques.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Michael Mansfield CIO
ADA/BTC (Cardano) BUY, 05/07/18, written 9:45 p.m. EST
Let me know what you think.
Comment Below!