After Tesla's Stock went into dive-mode last week I started to think about Electric Vehicles and where we are currently at. I consistently argue about this topic with my best friend as he says "EVs are the future" - and I would agree, but with a footnote that we're just not there yet. I think this topic is really interesting and can be broken into several posts. Therefore I will split it up - and if I get some resonance on this post, I will continue with my thought on this.
I have been working in the automotive industry for quite some time and EVs are a very interesting topic, highly researched and, considering recent news, the road to the future. However, I currently can't decide if we are at a stage of cell-phone technology or 3D TV technology. What do I mean by that? Well, cell phones came out in the early 1970s and became mainstream in the 90s. It was useful to make quick calls, send text messages and play snake (!)
While cell phones had some useful features, it was still not entirely clear what the benefit was considering high costs for data, low resolution and not that many features aside from snake (i really loved snake). Then, the early 2000scame the dawn of the smartphone and boosted the device to the center of our every-day-lives making it an irreplaceable part of our digital world. Now, 3D TV technology never caught on even though it was highly pushed by the industry until most manufacturers announced by the beginning of 2017 that they will stop making them.
The reason I bring up these points is that I see EVs at a similar crossroad. The industry and governments are pushing them to a great extent. Many manufacturers VOLVO are declaring the end of the combustion engine, and others are planning to expand their E-portfolio. From a German's point-of-view EVs are a disruptive technology, which is probably why Germany is still reluctant to announce the end of the combustion engine. Not to say that this is not good (I actually do approve of EVs), but it is a smarter move for smaller car manufacturers (by sales numbers), such as TESLA or Volvo, to introduce a disruptive technology and shake up the market giants like VW or Toyota, than for the market giants to move away from something they are the best at. China on the other hand, aside from some political motivation, is also doing this as they have a huge market they can cater to and claim it for themselves instead of foreign makers.
So why do I think it is at a crossroad then?
Well, simply put I think EVs do not offer any real consumer benefit at the moment. The smartphone gave us instant access to the world, from almost anywhere in the world. The 3D-TV, on the other hand, was a gimmick, and on top of paying additionally for expensive glasses, it was very limited. EVs don't have the range and limited access to the comforts you have in a normal car because every little extra will decrease the range of your battery as well. On top of that, the infrastructure is not yet built up around electric vehicles - granted this takes time and the more vehicles are on the road, the more governments and companies will invest (hence why I am saying that we are not there yet). So, for the consumer, this is highly uninteresting which is why governments have to subsidize, but most of these programs are not gaining a lot of traction, simply because of the low consumer-benefit, aside from the moral high-ground that some like to take for preserving the environment.
Of course there is much being done to aid this:
- Lower costs for manufacturing
- Better battery and charging technology
- Ideas to adapt the infrastructure
This would bring me to the next part of my little series - how feasible is all of this new technology and what may the roadblocks be in the future?And while it may not sound like it, but I do think that EVs will be the future, but simply not in the way we see them today. I am still waiting for a development similar to the smartphone to hopefully turn our current technology into something more palatable.
Either way, go easy on me as this is my first opinion piece and I appreciate any constructive feedback. If you would like to read more, I would enjoy some positive votes.
Thanks!