"The US and China are headed towards a new cold war." That's the buzz that's on the front page of every gossip-rag masquerading as a news outlet anywhere in the world right now. As tensions heat up on every issue from the Trade War, -where the US has a black eye while a leg-amputated China lies bleeding with their innards hanging out (Bershidsky)- to espionage (Goldman and Perlroth), conventional wisdom is that the world's two largest economies are inching dangerously close to war.
I read a recent article on Foreign Policy magazine's website that pins the blame for this squarely on the shoulders of the "eternal aggressor," Washington (Karabell), while portraying Beijing as an innocent and unassuming party with no ulterior motives, whose actions have been above reproach and whose motives have been transparent and benign, except when they were forced, with heavy hearts, to rise to the "provocations" of the US. When I read all this... well, I have to be frank. All of the rhetoric about the "danger of war" between the US and China (Pillsbury), especially the FP article blaming the US for it, is just about the stupidest thing I've read since Hillary Clinton was still campaigning. In response to all the handwringing about how we are getting dangerously close to war, let me take a minute to address the elephant in the room, the same elephant I've been waving my arms and screaming about since I opened this blog.
We're already in one! China has already been engaged in a war against the US, as the PLA defines war, for decades!
Two Words: Deng Xiaoping
To the surprise and Consternation of many China hands, Deng Xiaoping not only dissolved his country's de facto alliance with the United States, but went even further, declaring in September 1991 that "a new Cold War" between China and the sole remaining superpower would now ensue.
(Mosher, Bully of Asia, 117)
All Party members must follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory.
(Xi, The Governance of China Vol. I, 23)
Does this even need an explanation? Deng Xiaoping, who in the eyes of the Communist Party of China ranks second only to Mao (though Xi Jinping might be knocking him to number 3), made plain that after the USSR collapsed, China's next target was the US. Even though the West greeted this with a smug and "knowing" smirk and forgot about it, the Taipei Times commented on this as far back as 2005, pointing out a geopolitical situation in East Asia that has changed eerily little since then (Chiou).
What was his provocation for this declaration? Allegedly it was the US's "interference in China's affairs (read 'sanctions to show we would not be associated with their barbaric conduct')" after the PLA's "righteous suppression of the June 4 rebellion," known in most of the civilized world as the Tiananmen Square Massacre. The reality, as Mosher points out in the Wall Street Journal, as well as in his book, Bully of Asia, is that China now felt free to set her sights on the nation occupying the place the ethnocentric Zhonghua have always believed was their rightful place in the world's order: the United States. Essentially, the fact that we, rather than they, were the world's preeminent power was an inexcusable slight by a nation of "laowai siyi (the closest translation is 'foreign barbarians' though the term 'barbarian' doesn't do justice to the less-than-human connotations of the word 'siyi')" in the eyes of a nation who prided themselves on being the "Central Nation."
Oh, and by the way, lest anyone get the idea that the word of a Chinese Statesman from that long ago no longer holds sway over China today, count how many times Xi Jinping pounds his fist against the pulpit and vehemently calls upon the Party and the population to reaffirm their dedication to carrying out Deng Xiaoping's will.
While the US Celebrated "the End of History," China was Already Busy Starting it Again
If we acknowledge that, the new principles of war are no longer "using armed force to compel the enemy to submit to one's will," but rather "using all means, including armed force or non-armed force, military and non-military, and lethal and non-lethal means to compel the enemy to accept one's interests."
(Qiao & Wang, 7)
Of course, in 1991 China was a global nobody, with a GDP lower than some individual states of the US. The US, by contrast, had just witnessed the collapse of the USSR and our sweeping victory in the Gulf War, and didn't take this bluster from China very seriously. For one thing, they weren't strong enough to be a threat and for another, the prevailing wisdom was that with enough time to get wealthy, they would liberalize and become more like us.
As China got stronger, we didn't worry so much. They still never came close to being our rival by most measures. Besides, we were still convinced they would be swayed by Rock and Roll and Hollywood, much the way most of the USSR had.
When Xi Jinping came along and started restoring Mao era policies (Communique), this showed the world that their hopes that wealth and modern conveniences would liberalize China were pipe dreams. As we now know, China is not becoming more like the rest of the world but is in fact reverting to something closer to Qin Shihuang's empire. That was when the West started to realize "maybe China's not on-track to join the Free World after all." This was the point when talking heads in Washington FINALLY started to realize we probably should get ready to do something about China, and it took Donald Trump to finally make that an official policy (National Security Strategy 2017). However, while it's certainly good news that someone in Washington has finally acknowledged the paradox that even though China is weaker economically, militarily and diplomatically they are still a threat that must be addressed, the time has come to look at what China has been doing as part of their "New Cold War" already and understand that threat.
War By Any Other Means, is Still War
Warfare can be military, or it can be quasi-military, or it can be non-military. It can use violence, or it can be nonviolent. It can be a confrontation between professional soldiers, or one between newly emerging forces consisting primarily of ordinary people or experts. These characteristics of beyond-limits war are the watershed between it and traditional warfare, as well as the starting line for new types of warfare.
(Qiao & Wang, p. 206 & 207)
Atomic warfare, Diplomatic warfare, Financial warfare,
Conventional warfare, Network warfare, Trade warfare,
Bio-chemical warfare, Intelligence warfare, Resources warfare,
Ecological warfare, Psychological warfare, Economic aid warfare,
Space warfare, Tactical warfare, Regulatory warfare,
Electronic warfare, Smuggling warfare, Sanction warfare,
Guerrilla warfare, Drug Warfare, Media warfare,
Terrorist warfare, Virtual warfare (deterrence), Ideological warfare;
Any of the above types of methods of operation can be combined with another of the above methods of operation to form a completely new method of operation.
(ibid, p. 146)
In an earlier article, which I should probably follow up on, I gave some examples about how China has been using ancient military philosophy to wear down the US without challenging us directly. They are, after all, in no position to do that just yet (Friedman), no matter how much a PLA Senior Colonel (the rank equivalent to Brigadier General) named Liu Mingfu may want to (Buckley (1)). While they may not like to admit internationally that they are not ready for that confrontation, their own internal media proves they know it (Chan). For this reason, the West, especially the US, has allowed themselves to be lulled into the mindset that "as long as China's military can't beat ours, we're fine."
Here's why a 1999 PLA publication called Unrestricted Warfare, written by PLA Senior Colonels Qiao Liang & Wang Xiangsui (I'm beginning to suspect the PLA has a regulation requiring every officer holding the rank of Senior Colonel to write a book calling for war against America in order to be eligible for promotion), needs to be required reading for everyone in Washington whose job even tangentially brushes the field of "policy on China." In a nutshell, this is a modern-day reiteration of China's oldest philosophy on war: all means, with all resources, against all targets, at all times, are acceptable and praiseworthy so long as they achieve the objective, and the ultimate objective is not to destroy the enemy but to subdue him and subjugate him without a fight (need I reiterate Sun Tzu?). That way the labor pool provided by the vanquished is not diminished by too many war-dead.
What this means is that any action taken by China with the intent of weakening another country (and Deng Xiaoping made it pretty clear who their target is) is, by the PLA's definition, a war (Lee). The absence of flying bullets and severed limbs does not change that, and as with any war, the losing side will spend the next phase of history playing by the winning side's rules.
The Casualties Might Be Low, But the Stakes are High
It [a 21st Century War] is likely to be very intense, but with practically no bloodshed. Nevertheless, it is likely to determine who is the victor and who the vanquished in an overall war.
(Qiao & Wang, p. 43)
When people begin to lean toward and rejoice in the reduced use of military force to resolve conflicts, war will be reborn in another form and in another arena, becoming an instrument of enormous power in the hands of those who harbor intentions of controlling other countries or regions.
(ibid, p. 6)
So it might be asked at this point "if China's means of gaining power are s much less bloody than traditional warfare, why should we oppose them?" Good question, but a look at China's own history presents an answer. Most countries conquer through bloodshed and rule without it. China, however, has a history of doing it the other way around. To know what the world could expect from Chinese rule, it's wise to look past the rhetoric (and past the money, which seems to be where everyone's definition of benevolence seems to begin and end these days) and look at their actions toward those they rule.
One need look no further than the horrors they inflict upon Tibetans (Buckley (2)), Uighurs (Lim), the Falun Gong religious sect (Beaumont), or anyone who dares criticize them, such as Liu Xiaobo (Buckley (3)), to see this, and need I even bring up Tiananmen Square? The Chinese themselves live in fear of their government (Wong) and anyone found guilty of being non-Han lives in fear and misery in a Dhimmi-like, second-class status. What's more ironic than that is the fact that the Chinese themselves do not seem the slightest bit ashamed of this brutality, and have quite openly bragged that they see their treatment of Tibetans and Uighurs as a model for how they will "rule" their "harmonious world (Ford)."
This is not only true within their borders either. Anywhere in the world where China exercises power, blood invariably flows. In Africa, where China has been flexing their muscles lately, they have been as racially derisive toward the local population as any European Empire, except that they are more shamelessly open about it (Ellyatt), and they have not bothered to hide the fact that they consider themselves above the law and have a right to employ violence (Mueni).
In the Philippines, China's occupation of the waters around their illegally annexed islands has resulted in Filipino fishermen being unable to fish in their own waters without "generous" permission from the Chinese military (Santos). This has lead to a marked rise in the number of Filipinos suffering from starvation (Flores). As a result, the Philippines, a nation of islands, must now "import" fish from China, and I use the term "import" in quotes because these fish are caught in waters in the Philippine EEZ.
It goes without saying that China begins firing on Filipino fishermen in what they laughbaly call "Chinese indusputable sovereign territory" if the Philippines do not bow to China's will politically. And of course, just as in the cases of Tibet and Xinjiang, China shamelessly brags about this arm-twisting, making no attempt to hide their claim of "Filipino fishermen will not fish in these waters if China is not obeyed."
In light of regional security and the long-term development of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte took the initiative to cushion relations between the two sides. Meanwhile, his administration downplayed the alliance with the United States. Rodrigo Duterte's whirlwind visit to China eased the tension between the two countries. The Philippines' farmers now can engage in fishery near Huangyan Island [Scarborough Shoal] again.
(Jin Canrong et al., China's Wisdom, p. 222)
Now Then, What Was This About a "New Cold War?"
It has been established that contrary to China's "peaceful rise" rhetoric, one of China's paramount leaders declared the start of a "New Cold War" 27 years ago, and that this war has not ended.
It has been established that contrary to Washington's belief that this was bluster, this war is, in the eyes of the Chinese, a war, whether cold or not, and some of the means by which it has been carried out have been identified.
It has been established that contrary to claims from both the Chinese and Western media that China is seeking "win-win cooperation," the aim of this "Cold War" is the subjugation of the US, and indeed the world, under the rule of China's vision of the Tianxia Datong.
And finally, it has been established that contrary to the Western media's infatuation with China (I'm looking at you, HuffPo and WaPo), China's "harmonious new world" would be a dark and brutal place to live, wherein the Chinese elite would exercise dictatorial power and casual brutality over individuals, groups, or even nations for no loftier reason than to avenge perceived "insults," as they did for centuries before Europeans arrived and taught China what it was like to be on the other end of oppression.
So where does this lead? Well, if China is determined to have a "New Cold War," then I say give them one. We can fight a Cold War on the terms they have set up, and we can beat them. It appears to me that by means of economic warfare, the Trump Administration is finally doing that. In terms of diplomatic warfare, China has been kind enough to build a respectable anti-China alliance for us. And of course, when China's hawks call for the war to go from cold to hot (Bender; Kahn), we must not back down. If China sees that we're willing to fight a shooting war if it comes to that, that will limit their options in the New Cold War which they themselves have so eagerly started.
China is weak, and they are getting weaker. A black widow spider is one of the weakest creatures known, and can be killed without breaking a sweat; but if you do not know it is out to bite you, it can kill you. If we do not wake up and realize that they are seeking our demise, China's weakness won't matter. It is time to acknowledge the "Red Widow Spider" for what it is, get over the fantasy that China would ever modernize or liberalize, and that means Washington must accept the Cold War we have already been locked in since 1991, and start fighting back.
Author's Note: Anything that has a link without a citation is a link to another entry in this blog, which I felt did not require citations.
Works Cited
Books
Jin Canrong, Dai Welai, Zhou Xinyu, Sun Xihui, Wang Shushen, Kang Xiao, Dong Chunking, Guo Zhenjia, Wang Hao, Xiong Lili. Trans. Wen Jianxin. China's Wisdom. Beijing, 2017. China Renmin University Press.
ISBN 978-7-30024-622-2
Mosher, Steven W. Bully of Asia. Washington, 2017. Regnery Publishing.
ISBN 978-1-62157-696-9
Qiao Liang & Wang Xiangsui. Unrestricted Warfare. Beijing, 1999. People's Liberation Army Arts and Literature Publishing House.
(Translation from Echo Point Books and Media) ISBN 978-1-54951-052-6
Xi Jinping. The Governance of China; Vol. I. Beijing, 2014. Foreign Languages Press.
ISBN 978-7-119-11394-4
Government Documents
Communiqué on the Current State of the Ideological Sphere. Communist Party of China General Office Central Committee. Trans. Mingjing Magazine. 22 Apr, 2013. http://www.chinafile.com/document-9-chinafile-translation . Web, 12 Nov, 2018.
National Security Strategy of the United States of America. The White House, Dec, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf . Web, 12 Nov, 2018.
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Thinking Class of the Philippines. Image Showing Waters Claimed by China. Facebook. 27 Aug, 2017, 8:47 AM. https://www.facebook.com/375179605892585/photos/a.1188147164595821/1829496810460850/?type=3&theater . Web, 4 Nov, 2018.
Wong, Keeny. Video Compilation of Chinese Police Brutality While Xi Jinping Boasts of China's Human Rights Progress. Facebook 22 Oct, 2018, 1:11 PM. https://www.facebook.com/KeenyWong1531/posts/1119015491609006 . Web, 14 Nov, 2018.