So, before the news coverage of the Singapore summit completely dies down and it becomes yesterday's news, let me go ahead and do what every single other political commentator on the planet has done and give my views of it. Now obviously, everyone in the world has strong opinions of it. Leftists and Never-Trumpers say Trump struck-out (The Economist, "Kim"), while his supporters say he knocked it out of the park (Barron, Time). In objective reality, it was a base-hit, and we're now in the process of waiting to see whether it will turn out to be a single or a double.
To begin with, let me note the obvious. We did not give North Korea any money or any uranium, which already makes this a step up from Barack Obama's deal with Iran. Also, unlike the Iran deal, the removal of sanctions is contingent upon North Korea FIRST dismantling their nuclear program. That's a subtle difference from the "we'll remove sanctions but we can put them back if you don't hold up your end of the bargain" mainly in that it puts the onus on North Korea. If they fail to denuclearize and sanctions remain, then it is due to THEIR decision. Under Obama's Iran deal, sanctions were lifted and if America put them back in place then it was due to OUR decision. The main difference between the two is who looks like the bad guy if the deal falls through. And finally, in a move that not many except Americans can understand the significance of, the remains of US troops from the Korean War are being repatriated. Americans have been left behind for two long, and we're bringing our boys home.
Now, the news is not all good. For one thing, we got no hard promises in terms of dates or timelines. Also, it presently appears that we did give up our military exercises with South Korea (Smith, Reuters, "Trump Surprises"). However, Asahi Shimbun provides a few details about this that were overlooked elsewhere. For one thing, North Korea originally had no intention of calling for these exercises to end, but they were pressured into it by Xi Jinping.
“Our top priority is securing the long-term survival of North Korea’s regime, and it was not on our mind (before the talks with Kim and Xi in Dalian) to demand a halt to U.S.-South Korean military maneuvers,” according to a North Korean source in Beijing.
This trend of China pressuring north Korea to get concessions from the US that benefit China more than they benefit North Korea, is a trend that will become important later in this article. Also, look carefully. The only agreement we made was to end bilateral exercises that cast North Korea as the enemy. Observe.
But Kim called for the suspension of military drills that cast North Korea as the enemy at his meeting with Trump, North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency reported.
In other words, multilateral exercises (such as US/SK/Japan, for instance) or exercises that cast another regional aggressor as the enemy (I won't mention who I'm thinking of but it starts with a "C" and rhymes with a woman's reproductive organ) are still fair game. Furthermore, I find it odd that the ones complaining about giving up those exercises as one of our concessions at the negotiating table are the same ones who said after Kim withdrew from the summit that we should cancel those exercises anyway just to get him back to the table (Cho, ABC News), and need we even mention that the ones who are flabbergasted about him "disgracing our flag" by displaying it next to that of North Korea are the same ones who were mocking him a year ago for not negotiating, and who praised Barack Obama for meeting with so many tyrants?
...Including this humiliating moment with Cuba's leader?
Enough said on that subject.
However, while the world may argue over who was the biggest winner of the summit, the elephant in the room that no one seems to want to talk about is who was the biggest loser: China.
First of all, a little bit of history. China created North Korea during their 1951 invasion of the Korean Peninsula. Their rhetoric (which they persist in to this day, despite the fact that anyone who has been to both Koreas can see how laughable it is) was that the ROK was an "Imperialist puppet" which oppressed Koreans, and the DPRK was the "legitimate, free people's government." The reality was China feared a Free-World outpost on their doorstep and wanted a nice little lapdog buffer zone that shared their ideology of Communism. As time went on, North Korea developed another use for its Chinese masters: a distraction for the United States, and an occasional tool. George Friedman noted in an article for Geopolitical Futures that North Korea has an interestingly coincidental history of flaring up at exactly the point when the US is getting ready to put pressure on China, and that China has had a history of using this as a lever at negotiations. "You need me to lean on Pyongyang, eh? I see. So, about these tariffs..." or "oh, you don't like my bases in the West Philippine Sea, do you? I see. So, what's your plan for dealing with Pyongyang again?" In short, it has never really been a secret that North Korea was under China's control.
Well, as I mentioned in an earlier article, there have been signs recently (ranging from casual remarks from Xi to the deployment of a certain PLA unit to North Korea's border at a suspicious time) that Xi's China was beginning to feel North Korea would serve better as a province or... ahem "Ethnic Korean Autonomous Region" than it would as the first member of the Neo-Tributary Hegemony. Frankly, Xi's actions leading up the the summit confirmed that to me. While much of the world noticed China's "interest," ranging from the fact that Xi suddenly invited Kim to Beijing (on a Chinese train) prior to the summit (BBC, "Kim"), to their insistence on providing Kim's transportation (Nakazawa, Asian Review, "Kim") and even a PLA escort to the summit (Zhou, SCMP, "China may"), I believe most of the world misinterpreted the signal. Most of the world said "China is sending a message to Washington that they've got Korea's back." I see it differently.
Do you note that it was China, not North Korea, that pushed for so many meetings between Xi and Kim prior to the summit?
Do you note that it was China, not North Korea, who insisted on so much Chinese involvement in Kim's arrival?
And do you note that China, which pushed so hard to be a factor in North Korea's preparations for the summit, was not even present at the summit, but is now begging Washington to let them know what happened, in terms that make it plain China's foreign minister is pouting about being left out? My, my, I wish I could be a fly on that wall when Pompeo casually lets that arrogant bastard Wang Yi know that his country has been outmaneuvered, right out in the open...
But I digress.
Anyway, let me give this analogy. A newlywed woman gets into an argument with her sister's husband, wherein she is backed by her new husband, a crude and brutish biker who is the sister's husband's arch-rival. The fight ends with the newlywed wife not speaking to her sister or her sister's husband for years. During this time, her husband beats the hell out of her regularly while reminding her he's the only thing protecting her from "those people." Though she finally does begin talking with her sister again, her husband keeps tight control over her communications and never lets her out of the house for fear that she will start talking to her sister's husband, who by this time is the local sheriff. Eventually, he comes home showing off a new leather belt he has bought, describing it as "perfect for whoopin' the ass, of a bitch who steps outta line, don'tcha think, darlin'?" The next day, she decides she has to take a risk. She calls her sister AND her sister's husband and says "I need to talk to you." Her husband finds out about it and he's not happy, but he isn't going to take the risk of sending his battered wife to a meeting with the local sheriff bearing fresh bruises. So instead, he takes a steel dog-collar (complete with a lock), etches his name in it preceded by the words "property of," and clasps it around her neck before she goes to the meeting, telling her through gritted teeth with beer-soaked breath "in case you think of walking away from me, remember who you belong to."
In case anyone reading this has a single-digit IQ, the newlywed wife in my analogy is North Korea, the sister is South Korea, the biker is China, the Sheriff is the US, and the collar is all of the Chinese hardware Kim went to Singapore with. In short, I DO believe China was sending a message, but I don't think it was aimed at Washington.
See, China has been quite fond of their control over North Korea. They have always loved the fact that Washington could not so much as speak to Pyongyang without going through them. Their role as the information broker between these two when North Korea got aggressive, coupled with their behind-the-scenes role as the puppeteer dictating when North Korea did so, gave them huge influence over the US's maneuvering space in the region. When news got out that Pyongyang and Washington were talking without China's involvement, even the New York Times noted China's sudden unease.. China, in typically petty and juvenile Zhonghua fashion, has even gone so far as to say that they will not recognize any treaty ending the Korean War unless they are part of it (VOA Chinese).
The most important development, as I see it, is the one no one seems to be paying much attention to, and that is Donald Trump's Carly Rae Jepsen moment (Reuters, "Call Me"). In short, the establishment of a direct line of communication between Washington and Pyongyang means that regardless of whether relations between the US and North Korea are warm or cold, they will, from now on, be handled by the US and North Korea: no more 中华中人 (Zhong hua Zhong ren: literally, "Chinese middle man"). Does this mean that North Korea is now going to "switch sides" and start trilateral strategic cooperation with the US and South Korea? It's unlikely, but given Kim's well-documented distrust of China's overbearing hold on his nation, not impossible. Look how quickly Vietnam mended their fences with America in the wake of China's aggression? The very fact that it is even conceivable is now going to be the bump that keeps many a PLA general up at night, and it proves conclusively that China is no longer advancing in East Asia, but is now on the defensive. That alone is a huge, huge blow to China, as many are starting to notice now (Nakazawa, Asian Review "China Startled").
China has now been confronted with the reality that far from being the "rulers of all under Heaven," they are not even the rulers of their own backyard. I can't call it a Human Rights victory. I mean, after all, North Korea is run by a dictatorial murderous sonofabitch, but let's be honest. So is China. As of last week, North Korea's dictatorial murderous sonofabitch is no longer a Chinese-controlled dictatorial murderous sonofabitch, but an independent one, meaning China's "sphere of influence" has been shattered before it was even built.
And that alone is worth far, far more than we gave up.
Works Cited
From the Web
"Call Me any Time: Trump Says he Gave North Korea's Kim Direct Number." Reuters. 15 Jun, 2018. Web. 17 Jun, 2018.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-trump/trump-says-he-will-call-north-koreas-kim-on-sunday-idUSKBN1JB1R5
"Kim Jong Un Did Better than Donald Trump at the Singapore Summit." The Economist. 16 Jun, 2018. Web. 18 Jun. 2018.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018/06/16/kim-jong-un-did-better-than-donald-trump-at-the-singapore-summit
"Kim Jong-un was in Beijing, China and NK Confirm." BBC. 28 Mar. 2018. Web. 17 Jun. 2018.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43564529
"U.S. Secretary of State to Visit China, Talk About Trump-Kim Summit." Xinhua News. 13 Jun, 2018. Web. 17 Jun, 2018.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-06/13/c_137251381.htm
Barron, Laignee. "Body Language Experts Reveal What Trump and Kim's Behavior Says About the Singapore Summit." Time. 12 Jun, 2018. Web. 17 Jun, 2018.
http://time.com/5309264/body-language-singapore-summit-trump-kim/
Cho, Joohee. "North Korea Blames US-South Korea Military Drill for Postponement of Talks." ABC News. 16 May, 2018. Web. 18 Jun. 2018.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/north-korea-blames-us-south-korea-military-drill/story?id=55200524
Friedman, George. "China, North Korea and a Useful Coincidence." Geopolitical Futures. 7 Apr. 2017. Web. 17 Jun 2018.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-north-korea-useful-coincidence/
Funakoshi, Takashi. "Xi Urged Kim to Call for a Halt to U.S.-S. Korean Military Drills." 17 Jun. 2018. Web. 17 Jun. 2018.
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201806170022.html
Nakazawa, Katsuji. "Kim Flies in for Summit on Chinese Plane, in Victory for Xi." Nikkei, Asian Review. 11 Jun. 2018. Web. 17 Jun. 2018.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Kim-flies-in-for-summit-on-Chinese-plane-in-victory-for-Xi
Nakazawa, Katsuji. "China Startled by Trump's Hotline to Kim." Nikkei, Asian Review. 18 Jun, 2018. Web. 18 Jun. 2018.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/China-startled-by-Trump-s-hotline-to-Kim
Perlez, Jane. "Before Kim Meets Trump, China Gets Jittery About North Korea’s Intentions." New York Times. 10 Jun, 2018. Web. 18 Jun. 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/10/world/asia/trump-kim-korea-china.html
Smith, Josh. "Trump Surprises with Pledge to End Military Exercises in South Korea." Reuters. 12 Jun. 2018. Web. 17 Jun. 2018.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-military/trump-surprises-with-pledge-to-end-military-exercises-in-south-korea-idUSKBN1J812W
Voice Of America Chinese. "章立凡：中国不会出局，但可能被边缘化6/11 #时事大家谈 #精彩点评." 10 Jun, 2018. Facebook Post. Web. 17 Jun. 2018.
https://www.facebook.com/voachina/videos/10155658813020686/?hc_ref=ARRgE25a95mu3NRzxrk507SR-7mfZW2GiOFObGRKiT3N8x1lD7bcIdlTk1V0B2j6QYo
Zhou, Laura. "China May Send Fighter Jet Escort for Kim Jong-un When he Flies to Singapore to Meet Trump." South China Morning Post. 7 Jun, 2018. Web. 17 Jun. 2018.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2149791/china-may-send-fighter-jet-escort-kim-jong-un-when-he