A new study suggests that rising global temperatures could be increasing the risk of fatal cancers among women in some of the world’s hottest areas.
Researchers examined data from 17 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, identifying a clear trend: as average temperatures increased, largely due to climate change, so did the incidence and mortality rates of four major cancers affecting women, breast, ovarian, uterine, and cervical cancer.
The study, which analyzed data from 1998 to 2019, found that for every one degree Celsius rise in temperature, there were statistically significant increases in both cancer cases and deaths.
A Syrian woman. Photograph: UNICEF
“As temperatures rise, cancer mortality among women also rises, particularly for ovarian and breast cancers,” said study lead author Dr. Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria from the American University in Cairo. “Although the increases per degree of temperature rise are modest, their cumulative public health impact is substantial.”
The study arrives as projections indicate that temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa may increase by as much as 4°C by 2050, intensifying climate-related health risks. The research highlights that women are particularly vulnerable because of existing structural inequalities and restricted access to healthcare.
“Women are physiologically more vulnerable to climate-related health risks, particularly during pregnancy,” said study co-author Dr. Sungsoo Chun. “This is compounded by inequalities that limit access to healthcare. Marginalised women face a multiplied risk because they are more exposed to environmental hazards and less able to access early screening and treatment services.”
Among the four cancers studied, ovarian cancer showed the steepest rise per degree of warming, while cervical cancer showed the smallest. Breast cancer remained the most prevalent across the region. All four types showed increases in both incidence and mortality as temperatures climbed.
A Yemeni woman. Photograph: UNDP
The countries that showed the strongest temperature-related increases included Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. For example, in Qatar, breast cancer prevalence rose by 560 cases per 100,000 women per degree of warming, compared to 330 in Bahrain.
Researchers adjusted for economic differences by accounting for GDP per capita but acknowledged that other local factors, such as pollution, frequency of heatwaves, or changes in healthcare systems, could also influence the trends observed.
“Temperature rise likely acts through multiple pathways,” explained Dr. Chun. “It increases exposure to known carcinogens, disrupts healthcare delivery, and may even influence biological processes at the cellular level. Together, these mechanisms could elevate cancer risk over time.”