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One of the trending topics in China recently is that Alipay, a third-party online payment platform, announced that we will be living in a cashless society within 5 years. Today I would like to join the discussion and share some of my thoughts.
这几天，热门的话题之一，莫过于支付宝公司提出的：实现五年内无现金交易 新闻了。今天我们借着正热门，也来聊下这个话题。
To recap the story, on March 2, Alipay posted on Weibo (a Chinese microblogging website, akin to a hybrid of Facebook and Twitter. It is one of the most popular sites in China.) that “We want to use only 5 years to help China become a cashless society. Come, tell us in what scenario you can only use cash as payment, and we will attack (work hard on) that area!” Then they made an official announcement on June 23 to confirm this claim.
事情是这样的，上周的时候，任性的支付宝发了微博说“我们想用五年推动中国进入无现金社会。来，说出你身边还有哪些只能用现金 的场景，我们接下来去死磕！”
At a glance, you would think that Alipay is being overambitious to believe that they could single-handedly challenge the whole financial system, especially traditional banking. However, if you really think about it, just look around, among all your friends and classmates, who isn’t using digital payment yet? Such as Alipay, Wechat (a social media that included instant messaging, commerce and payment services)...
乍一看，你会觉得支付宝好大口气，一家企业，竟然想靠一己之力，同整个金融市场对抗，尤其是传统银行。但若你稍微仔细想下，环顾下你周围，看看你的朋友和同学中，还有几人没有在使用电子支付，支付宝、微信。。。
Obviously, right after their announcement, many companies and corporations became restless. China Banknote Printing and Minting Corporation responded on their official WeChat account [jokingly] that: “ I want to use my small fist to hammer your chest…” (Here they use a quote from a viral Chinese video featuring a spoiled girl acting cute to her beau.) Many other traditional banking corporations have voiced their disagreements too.
当然，话音刚落，很多企业就开始坐不住了。对此，中国印钞造币总公司官方微信“怒”回应：人家要用小拳拳捶你胸口哦~。还有银行等传统产业，皆纷纷上奏表示不服。
Disagreements are disagreements. Sun Yat-sen, the pioneer of China’s democratic revolution, had this to say, “The trend of the world is surging forward. ” New phenomena replacing the old is a natural force of the evolution. Even if it is not taking over completely yet, the orthodox will eventually fizzle out.
不服归不服。如同伟人那句名言：“世界潮流，浩浩荡荡”。新生事物取代老生事物，这是时代发展的必然和趋势，即便不能完全取代，传统事物的光环也不会再依旧。
Looking back at the late 20th Century, when GOME Electrical Appliances (one of the largest privately owned electrical appliance retailers in Mainland China and Hong Kong) first established, the traditional department stores were deeply unsettled and openly protested against it by forming unions. What happened in the end? (They lost.) Later when Jingdong (one of the largest B2C e-commerce companies in China) launched in 2004, many offline electronic appliances companies, including GOME, started their protest and boycott. What happened in the end? When digital currency was first introduced, there was also a public outcry over the distrust on its security, some even refused to pay via a digital platform, and what happens now?
如同上个世纪，国美电器兴起的时候，传统百货公司哗然和抗议一大片，甚至不惜组成联盟来抵制，但结果呢？京东商城开始兴起的时候，线下很多电器包括国美等，也奋起拼杀、围剿，可最后呢？电子支付刚开始时，很多人大放厥词，说不安全云云，甚至一度拒绝电子支付，可到了现在呢？
At this point, the younger generation of people like you and me, have already learned that to achieve a cashless society is not a subject of possibility or difficulty, but just a matter of time. It’s already very common to conduct cashless transactions in the first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The second and third tier cities won’t take as much as 5 years to adopt it, I believe it’s achievable in under 2 years. And it won’t be an issue for the remaining fourth and fifth tier cities to go cashless within 5 years at all. Don’t you see how recently Fuzhou, Tianjin and other famous cities all rise up and show their support in adopting a cashless payment platform, because they don’t want to be left behind?
说到这里，相信年轻一代的你我，都已经明白，实现无现金交易，这已经远远不再是个问题或困难，而只是时间的问题了。北上广深一线城市到今日已完全普及了无现金交易，其余二三线，其实不消说五年，我认为两年内完全可以普及，剩下的四五线等其余，五年之内，绝无问题。君不见，近几日福州、天津等著名城市纷纷揭竿而起，响应无现金号召，意恐迟一步落在其他城市后边。
Furthermore, even if Alipay didn’t make such an announcement, soon enough Wechat would come up [with their own plan] to facilitate this irreversible trend.
再者，就算今日支付宝不提出这样的口号，某一天微信也会提出来，实现无现金交易，已经到了大势所趋的时候了。
Therefore, we see as the history progresses and a society develops, the new always replaces the old, it’s a universal law since the beginning of time. It is unstoppable by a few people or corporations, no matter how huge or powerful they are, even if they are financed by the government.
可见，历史要发展，社会要进步，新生事物取代老旧事物，这规律千万年不变，不是靠个人或几家企业就能左右的了，即便你是大企业，甚至国资背景，又能如何？
A chinese proverb says that “In the Yangtze River, the waves behind take over the waves in front.” If the waves in front don’t change their thinking and keep up with the innovation, they will soon crash onto the beach and die.
长江后浪推前浪，前浪如果再不改变思维、积极进取，迟早会被拍死在沙滩上。