Is it 100% Gambling or we already have the "Almanac"?
I love trading and I even traded some exotic pairs like "SEK/BRL" (Swedish Krona/Brazil Real) and "NOK/TRY" (Norwegian Krone/Turkish Lira) besides some more "classic" pairs like "EUR/USD" and "USD/JPY" (United States Dollars / Japanese Yen) - But as you know, when you deal with the currencies of these relatively "developed countries" or "zones" like Sweden, Norway, European Union, U.S.A. or Japan, the risk you take is limited when compared with the Cryptocurrencies (of course, you can still lose all the money you have in your account if you're a Forex Player who loves to play Russian Rulette with Forex Leverages). It's still a possibility that you might get yourself in trouble with SEK or NOK, but it would be a very, very bad luck if these currencies' value drop enormously. In the worst case scenario, maybe you would wait for a year or two (if you have the luxury, patience OR guts to wait, for sure) but even so, you would still be able to save yourself from loss. Yes, "the time itself is money" but you know what I mean. Currencies like USD, GBP, CHF, JPY, NOK, SEK, EUR are safe havens like Gold. It would be almost impossible for them to experience huge drops (or high volatility) like the way we see in Cryptocurrencies.
"Price Prediction": Is It Even Possible?
[XRP-USD Chart] - How to read this chart? Are there enough data, for example, to draw conclusions about RiPPLE's (or, i.e. Litecoin's or Ethereum's) long-term value by examining a chart like you see above? You can surely still examine your "4-hour graph" but would it be comparable to the 4-hour graph of EUR/USD pair when it comes to RELIABILITY, for example? We are still in the very early stages and I think we don't have enough data to have predictions about the long-term value of the protocols like Ripple or a Cryptocurreny like Litecoin by relying solely on their price charts.
When you deal with Fiat Currencies like USD or EUR, you have the charts of DECADES but when it comes to the value of IOTA (for example), you don't have any long-term chart that goes back enough - I like to see the Big Picture!
[USD-BRL Chart] - I should see it! I'ts always a pleasure to see "THE BIG PICTURE"!
Question..:
So, if (in my humble opinion) it's impossible to draw conclusions from the charts of these newly emerging mediums, then why am I investing in BTC, RIPPLE, ETHEREUM and STEEM?!
Answer..:
Because I'm actually investing in THE BENEFITS they provide (OR, they promise)!
If you are going to invest in any Cryptocurrency or a "payment protocol" like Ripple, you should invest in their BENEFITS (if they have any), not in their price charts (or at least, unless we have enough data to rely on their price charts - Else who doesn't like to have some Elliott Wave Analysis?) - It's already almost all about "LUCK", so at least bet on the right horse by thinking about the benefits they have or they promise. The value of 1 Bitcoin you have today might be at $1,000,000 in the future, but please always consider that its value can also be at $100! There are no GUARANTEES here and EVERYTHING is possible, especially in the world of Cryptocurrencies! No one can know about the future, even dear John McAfee who predicts that "the Bitcoin Price will be at $1,000,000 in 2020" (and he adds, if not, he will eat his own d.ck on National TV. An interesting appetite, right? It seems, either way, we will have some great fun!)
Why I invest in Bitcoin?
I admit it: I invest in Bitcoin because it's the FIRST CRYPTOCURRENCY BASED ON BLOCKCHAIN (but NOT the first Cryptocurreny, actually) and it was also introducing (or I'll dare to say, "PROMOTING") THE BLOCKCHAIN to the masses (I think it would be impossible for a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin to not benefit from the Blockchain Technology). And also, you need Bitcoin to buy almost all the other altcoins!
No matter what, we don't know which cryptocurrency(-ies) will rule the world in the future, but we can be 100% sure that THE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY AS A DATABASE will definitely have its impact and disrupt many "MIDDLE MAN" Industries. Soon or later it will change the way we manage and store "DATA". Even though the "traditional database model" generally served us well until now, it has MANY vulnerabilities because of its NATURE. IT'S CENTRALIZED! Meaning that if you (not YOU for sure, I know you're a fellow Steemian) hack the main database, you would be able to manipulate it as you wish (considering that you're a great hacker who knows how to deal with the "situation"). You would easily steal passwords, credit cards, identities and money! We see it everyday.
[Graphic: Me... Not that bad, don't you think so?]
Why I invest in RIPPLE (XRP)?
Because I believe it will change the way we send and receive PAYMENTS and it will be widely adopted throughout the financial institutions! Hey, wait a minute! Bitcoin didn't already do that? Yes but, The Evil BANKs don't like Bitcoin. Fact: I hate banks (who loves them anyway)... I mean it... But it seems BANKS will have a very good relationship with Ripple (if they are not already having one) because it's not there to kill them in the first place, it's not even a cryptocurrency! It's a payment protocol.
Have you ever tried to send / receive payments overseas? It may take DAYS! What about the FEES? What about if I just want to send $50 from The United States to Japan? Because of the fees, I would think twice. RIPPLE's promise is to reduce the time from DAYS to SECONDS with a very reasonable FEE!.
When it comes to these newly emerging mediums, I don't trust in price charts, BUT BENEFITS!
Now, THIS IS A PURE BENEFIT, AND I WILL DEFINITELY INVEST ON THAT!
[Graphic: Me again... If you wish, you can also use it in your own posts with a tiny attribution]
Why I invest in ETHEREUM (ETH)?
SMART CONTRACTS!
And at least we know who's behind Ethereum unlike Bitcoin (just kidding).
"Blockchain" is not limited to payments, it's far from that and that's what excites me the most about the future of "Blockchain Tech". With Ethereum, a developer could develop an application that removes all the "MIDDLE MAN" scenarios and time-consuming mambo-jambo. I think this is just the beginning (you can see some examples from here) and soon we'll start to see Smart Contracts everywhere!
Smart contracts are basically "programs" that execute in certain conditions and again, mostly meaning a farewell to the "middle man" and some almost-traditional time-consuming procedures! For example, imagine a programmer developing an application that lets the members watch DRUMMING LESSONS (Ian Paice mode "on") online! In this case, users will be able to watch the videos only when they pay some ETHERs! As you see, the payment of Ether triggered the smart contract and both parties are happy! There is no need to fill a form, there is no need to enter the credit-card information, there is no need to provide any time-consuming info. Pay the Ether, and start learning! Now isn't that a benefit? I think it is, I think the Smart Contracts will be widely adopted! So, I will definitely be investing in Ethereum. If you think you're lucky enough then you may also play a Smart Contracts based lottery! I am so excited, these are just the beginning of all!
Why I invest in STEEM (OR, "Steemit" ?)
Investing your time is also an investment, right?
"STEEMIT" is a fantastic idea and in the upcoming years it will hopefully become better and better! You can express yourself, share your ideas, and paid in return for doing that. If that's not a BENEFIT (which I believe will be widely welcomed by masses) and a groundbreaking approach to "social media" , then I wonder what is. "Time is money", right? Once the TIME is gone, it's gone for the good! Then why not invest some time into Steemit which pays you (more or less) for the time you invest?
A great gift from Greece! My santa posing with his Ledger Nano S.
For the absolute peace of mind, I memorized the private key (seed) of my Ledger Nano S and burned it (this is definitely not an investment advice). Thanks to my magical memory abilities I even still remember the private keys of my Electrum Wallet from two years ago!.
I made an agreement with myself:
-
I will HODL* the amount in my Ledger Nano S, for at least three years.
So, what goes into the wallet, stays there.
(Does "three years" count as "HODLing" anyway? Time will tell. Wish me luck!).
* "Hold On For Dear Life"