15:30 (CEST) Hertha BSC vs Bayern München: under 2.5 @2.57 for 0.4 (€4) pts Betfair Exchange. I'm putting a pre-match (set to keep) lay under 2.5 @1.63 to make scratch if it gets there.
Over the last 10 home games Hertha have gone under 2.5 50% and Bayern have gone unders 40% of their last 10 away games. Same stats for last 15 games respecitevly 40% and 47%. While both teams manage to score in most of their games: Hertha 10/10 + 14/15 and Bayern 7/10 + 12/15, they do manage to keep the defence tight. Hertha have conceded a goal in: 6/10 + 9/15 and Bayern in only 4/10 + 7/15. Both teams do not often go BTS, which is a bonus for unders: 40% over last 10 games and 43% over the last 15 games (note that this is an average between both team's stats). This gives us decent value, but the trigger that made me go for it is the following: Hertha and Bayern both being ranked as A-teams (ABC ranking); last season Bayern went unders 5/5 games away against A-teams.
18:00 (CEST) Viking vs Stromsgodset: under 2.5 @2.08 for 0.5 (€5) pts Betfair Exchange. I'm putting a pre-match (set to keep) lay under 2.5 @1.43 to make scratch if it gets there.
This bet is purely based on the fact that Stromsgodset have gone unders 2/11 away games so far this season. Looking at bottom vs top: 0/5 so far.
18:15 (CEST) Braga vs Estoril: BTS yes @2.00 for 0.6 (€6) pts Betfair Exchange.
I'm surprised to find such odds for this game. Last 10 games Braga have gone BTS 70% and Estoril 80%. Braga have scored 8/10 home games and the away team 9/10. Both have conceded at least one goal in 9/10 games (Braga at home, Estoril away). Braga is ranked as an A team and Estoril as a B (ABC ranking). Last season Estoril managed to get BTS in 5 of their 6 games against A-teams. Braga did so in 4/6 games against B rated opponents. Decent value and the chance of this game going BTS is definitely higher than 50%.
As you can read on my blog, I trade all my matches on the Betfair Exchange. Those bets are part of my 10K challenge, in which I trade a 1K bankroll to €10.000. My bets will be posted on Steemit, and my in game moves can be followed through my Twitter account: https://twitter.com/FootballTrader4. Keep in mind that the Blogabet picks will be tracked as straight bets, while my 10k Challenge results will be based on Betfair Exchange trades.