Hi guys,
We've had a good week so far. Due to a busy period at the office, I haven't had time to update this week's results yet, but will do so in the weekend. All I can say is that we have made a profit so far.
I'm trading the following matches tomorrow. Any in play moves will be posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FootballTrader4. Please let me know if you have any questions. I'm available on both Steemit and Twitter (DM).
17:30 (CEST) VPS vs HIFK: over 2.5 @2.19 for 0.6 (€6) pts.
VPS have gone over 2.5 7/14 games so far, while HIFK have had 10/14 matches gone over 2.5. When looking at equal opponents where both teams are rated as bottom teams; VPS 2/5 and HIFK 3/5 games over 2.5. It gets more interesting when you look at goals scored and conceded by both the home and away team. VPS have had 9/14 games gone BTS and the away team 10/14 games. As I mentioned before; BTS is a very important factor for a match to go over 2.5. Thus far VPS have managed to put in 1.14 goals a match on average and the away team have conceded 2.07 a match on average. To add onto that HiFK puts in 1.36 a match and VPS concedes 1.71 a match on average. You'd expect around 3 goals tomorrow, for this 2.19 is very decent value.
20:00 (CEST) Tours vs Brest: Brest to beat Tours @2.95 on Pinnacle for 0.5 (€5) pts.
Tours's current season's performances are terrible, but on top of that the long term stats show a good chance for Brest taking the 3 points tomorrow. Over the last 15 matches Tours has only in 53% (8x) of them, while they conceded at least one goal in 12 of those. Brest scored 14/15 and conceded only in 9/15 games. For the last 10 games the stats are respectively; Tours scored 5/10 and conceded 8/10. Brest scored 9/10 and conceded in only 6/10. Thus far this season Tours only managed to score a goal in 1 of their 4 home games. In the majority of the games Brest scores first compared to Tours, which each important to be able to trade out and secure a scratch. Stats last 15 games: Tours went 4x 1-0 and 9x 0-1. Brest went 5x 1-0 behind and scored the 0-1 10x. Summarized both teams for 1-0 en 0-1: 9x / 19x in favor of Brest. Keep in mind that all stats I state are based on either home or away. Teams play completely different away and home, so best to stick to these stats. To me Brest @2.95 seems like a steal. Expect it to drop until kick off.
20.30 (CEST) Schalke vs B. Leverkusen: Schalke to win @2.5 Betfair Exchange for 0.3 (€3) pts.
Purely based on Schalke scoring first more than Leverkusen scoring first away from home. Generalized stats over de last 15 matches: 18x / 12x (schalke vs Leverkusen). Same stats last 10 games: 14x / 6x. This season: 4x / 2x. Once they go ahead, I'll trade out. Only small stake as it's early season and things still have to settle down. Good luck!
Follow my in play moves on: https://twitter.com/FootballTrader4