20:15 (CEST). U. Comercio vs Comerciantes U.: over 3.5 @3.05 Unibet for 0.5 pts (€5).
Union Comercio's game at home have gone over 3.5 60% of the games, while Comerciantes's have for 40% of their away games. Against bottom vs bottom (equal teams) rated teams, the home team have gone over 3.5 60% and the away team 50% of their matches. So far U. Comercio scored and conceded in 9/10 of their home games and Comerciantes scored 8 and conceded 9 out of their 10 away games. Against equal teams those stats are respectively 100%/100% and 100%/75%. The home team has scored an average of 1.9 goals a match, while the away team conceded 1.9 goals a game. Comerciantes have scored 1.2 goals on average away from home and Comercio have
conceded 1.4 on average a game.
If you ask me this is decent value and the odds should definitely not be around 3.00 (33.33% probability).
Keep in mind that today's pick is not going in play on Betfair's exchange, so it'll be a set and forget bet.