I'm watching an hour-long briefing from 12/14 by the biggest healthcare admin firm in South Africa. Some really interesting things.
IT'S STILL EARLY, CONSIDER ALL OF THIS AS A HOT TAKE.
Overall, Omicron seems significantly less likely to put you in the hospital (like -30%), and much less likely to put you in the ICU even if admitted (like -75%).
A lot of the "hospitalizations" are still people entering the hospital for other reasons, and finding they're COVID positive on admission testing. That's consistent with a massive spike in cases, the "hospitalizations" can go up significantly just from those random odds.
It appears that children - so far - are at a slightly higher risk of hospitalization than with Delta, but the presenter cautions that the numbers are coming down and this may be an artefact of a small slice on a small sample. Child hospitalizations are still quite low compared to adult rates. (This could be coincidental positives at a higher rate if Omicron spread more through children in the early weeks.) Let's keep an eye on this one.
Omicron cases tend to clear up in about 3 days, and the incubation period is around 4 days - both a bit quicker than Delta or Original. First symptom is usually a scratchy throat, and many people get aches, especially lower back. The quick attack and quick recovery are both hopeful signs for reducing new variant evolution.
The risk of Omicron re-infection is highest for people infected in the first two waves. Omicron isn't yet showing an increased risk for people infected in the most recent Delta wave. It's likely this is just due to the recency of the Delta wave.
It's still not clear if Omicron is more contagious among the unvaxxed/uninfected population. (It's possible it's the same as Delta or lower, and the explosive spread is driven by immune escape.)