https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1345086669607890945
- VirusesImmunity
Really cool to see an immunologist publicly change her mind to support delayed 2nd doses. Really clear logic.
When time isn't crucial or vaccines are coming out so fast that waits are minimal, doing 2-dose treatments as tested is the right move, period.
When vaccine supplies are limited or rollouts are slow, or with a surge in transmission from B.1.1.7, delaying 2nd doses and getting as many vaccinated as possible is the right move.
I'm including a screencap of a relevant bit from Moderna's published data, suggesting about 92% efficacy of a single-dose starting 14 days after injection.
Denmark is one of the few countries that, like the UK, is sequencing the genome of around 10% of all positive cases. (That's roughly 100-500x higher than the US.)
While B.1.1.7 is still at fairly low levels, its presence as a share of positive cases is roughly doubling every week, which is even faster than a 56% boost in transmission should drive.
Small numbers, big room for error. In the thread, he did say he believes these numbers are representative, they're not targeting S-dropouts or things that would bias toward finding more B.1.1.7.
Just another data point supporting the consensus that it's somewhere around 50-80% more contagious, which just breaks any hope of lockdowns reducing it once it's past 30% or so of the new cases.