A few months ago I suggested a likely scenario that would play out in the crypto market, which would also form the basis for my investment strategy HERE. It is now my considered opinion that Bitcoin dominance would drop as it did in 2017 as seen in the pic below...
... and all indications at the time showed that we were on track to repeat that performance and pattern.
I no longer think that is the case! Firstly I do not believe we will see BTC dominance below 45% in the next decade, and in my opinion ETHEREUM will never get past 30% dominance again...ever!!
My reasoning goes like this...
BTC no longer the playground for the retail investor. Traditional financial entities such as Hedge Funds and large listed corporations are now the 'whales' in Bitcoin and any sharp pullbacks will get snapped up.
The same corporate main stream financial entities will be reluctant to dabble with alt coins whilst there are still bitcoins to be acquired.
Scarcity of BTC will ensure that price is driven up as HODL'ers become more and more reluctant to sell, especially with staking and lending an option.
Ethereum has some serious hurdles to face which I believe may offset their first mover advantage. ETH 2.0 is desperately needed to improve performance during sharp movements. Many liquidations occur due to poor performance during sharp moves as accounts cannot be adjusted timeously.
There are many so called 'Ethereum killers' now competing directly with Ethereum in the Smart Contract (SC) space... such as Solana, Zilliqa, Kusama and Cardano to name but a few. Each of these have unique advantages over Ethereum, being second generation SC platforms, not to mention ridiculously cheap transactions.
The preponderance of DeFi projects will also eat into Ethereum's share of the pie (Polka, YiFearn etc.)
Another thing that will be different this time is the duration of this 'bull' market. To my mind it will continue well into 2022 and even when the bear market arrives the downside will not be anywhere near the 80 to 90% we saw the previous cycles...
BUT WAIT ... there is a disclaimer here.......
The top 40 projects or so will not experience deep draw downs but rather maybe 40 to 60% but 9500 of the 11000 current tokens, coins, projects, scams out there will be annihilated or have 95% drops in value . So be careful where you place your money !
As always , thank you for stopping by your support is appreciated.
Namaste
