Bitcoin price continues to slide down. On 2 August, it fell below $600 but later corrected to $604.At the press time, bitcoin was traded at $605.9, decreasing by 3% in 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has not fallen that low since 22 June of this year.Overall, bitcoin has lost almost 8% since Sunday. On 31 July, it traded at $654. Bitcoin system market capitalisation decreased to $9.54 bln.One of the main factors apparently affecting investors’ mood is the expectation of the official statement following the three-day meeting between bitcoin core developers and miners that has taken place in California. Such industry leaders as Bitmain / AntPool, Blockstream, HaoBTC and F2Pool were reported taking part in the event. As bitcoin community participants suggest, the network scaling became the main issue.It is already known that the joint statement of the meeting participants is being prepared. Brian Bishop, the LedgerX bitcoin startup developer announced that the statement is 75 pages long.
Followkanzure @kanzure37,293 words, nearly 75 pages #bitcoin6:04 AM - 1 Aug 2016
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Macroeconomic factors seem to influence the bitcoin rate too. The slowdown in the GDP growth of the world’s largest economy, the United States, as well as the unwillingness of many central banks to radically change monetary policy and cut interest rates, may in the long term play into the hands of such assets as bitcoin, which involve high investment risk.But in the short term, the market is dominated by sales of raw material and high-risk assets. Investors are taking profit, therefore the bitcoin price may drop even further in the coming days.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Sideways Then Down
Bitcoin price toys with gravity after a non-committal Fed rates hold. Few large players, who have little perceived need for Bitcoin’s features, have any reason to hold a slumping commodity while stocks push to new highs.
Bitstamp 4-Hour Candle Chart
The outlook remains the same as yesterday: the 1day and 3day charts are bearish, and we anticipate decline.The 4hr candle chart MACD remains below zero. The proposal is that the market is denying decline with irrational psychology, but without institutional (whale) support. Hence, a sideways corrective pattern is forming until the sell-off below $640 kicks in.$640 remains the critical pivot. While price remains above $640 the largest players can hold price above this level until, eventually, perhaps initiating an advance. Our xbt.social method dictates that we sell, but we’ll follow the whales and only fully commit if they concede decline below $640.
Summary
Bitcoin price remains in sideways indecision. Yesterday’ FOMC press release indicated that the Fed sees general improvement in the US economy but that they await further improvement to raise rates. Hence, there is a general perception of low risk in the glocbal economy which should see stocks rise and commodities, like gold and bitcoin slump.
Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume
Bitcoin Price Continues Medium-Term Decline
Bitcoin price slipped over the edge during weekend trade. Analysis looks at the basic chart indications and potential decline targets.
Bitstamp 4-Hour Candle Chart
The 4-hour Bistamp chart shows that the market had sold price straight through $640 support, from where price has been slowly selling-off toward $600 and 4000 CNY.Although 4hr MACD had signaled Sunday morning’s decline (magenta circle), the stochastics (top panel) are grouping at their minimum, while RSI has achieved a previous lower low (horizontal blue annotation). The stochastic and RSI indications imply that price may need to correct upwards once decline to $600 has been achieved.The present decline happens below a bearish 1-day chart (MACD declining below its signal line), as well as a bearish 3-day chart where both MACD and the stochastics declining. Hence, we may have to wait a week or two for the decline to bottom out and find support.Based on the 1-day and 3-day bearish charts, the eventual destination of this decline looks to be at least $580, near the previous corrective low. Some analysts are calling for decline to “structural support” (meaning the previous harmonic pivot) at $450 and, from a technical perspective, nothing precludes this from happening.Fortunately, we don’t have to guess the bottom. Once we see the 4-hour MACD establish above its zero line and then advance above its signal line – with price above its 200MA, as in the extreme left of the chart – that will be the signal to look for an entry into the next wave of advance. Advance will once again have to grapple with the all-important $680 resistance level.
Don’t worry about what the markets are going to do, worry about what you are going to do in response to the markets – Michael Carr
Summary
Bitcoin price remains in a medium-term correction and may be unfolding the final decline to support prior to, and hopefully, a bounce-and-surge rally. Downside targets are at $600 and $580. It is preferable that the market find support at $580 quickly, and without declining lower, since this could draw the 1-week candle chart into bearish bias. Better to get tests of structural support over and done with.
