Good analysis. If anything you're being generous to ETC. I believe the long term market cap will be under 10 million. Consider the fact that Bitshares has a market cap of 13 million and has created a whole new coin with developer support. It was the basis for Steem itself.
No. In the mid to long term ETC should fall even lower.
RE: Ethereum Classic (ETC) Valuation: $0.71 Price, 65% Lower (Fixed Version + Updates)