- Central Banks and Bitcoin? A Journey around the Globe (Part 3)
- Telegram plans ICO, its own Blockchain Platform and Currency!
- Belarus: Europe's last Dictator wants to become Crypto King - Tax Exemption for Crypto Companies until 2023!
- Russia wants to regulate ICOs and Cryptocurrencies until March!
- Wikileaks accepts more Cryptocurrencies for Donations!
- Bitcoin Course Analysis for Week 51/2017
As the Bitcoin of these days climbs to heights beyond $ 15,000, and depths of $ 11,000 not only euphoria and gold rush sentiment, but also doubts, skepticism and fear of the next uncontrolled tulip around the cryptocurrencies - especially from state agencies and central banks.
When governments, state institutions and authorities are asked, there is no consensus as to how to handle the emerging economic power outside of conventional control. On the contrary, depending on which spot of our earth falls the eye, there is rather a patchwork of state answers instead of a unanimous tenor.
To regulate or not to regulate - that is the question. And the guards of the world economy are in disagreement.
While those who want to have a market power, crypto currencies know the money status, do not even see the responsibility or consider the monetary risk as too low, others are getting the blow. With the regulative lasso they want to move the digital currencies back into the safe hands of the authorities.
The following overview goes on a journey around the globe. It aims to provide an overview of the global situation and - without any claim to completeness - to disclose differences in state approaches.
Part 3 of my journey around the globe leads us to those states that believe they recognize the potential of cryptocurrencies and want to use them for themselves.
Estonia
The top dog and world leader of the blockchain implementation Estonia shows up to the end as a great advocate of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin & Co. need not fear regulation in the Baltic States. Rather, the Estonians are inspired and pursue efforts to publish their own cryptocurrency, the Estcoin. For example, the director of the Estonian e-residency program, Kaspar Korjus, proposed such a digital currency in August. This would give Estonian citizens the opportunity to certify digital documents from anywhere in the world.
However, ECB President Mario Draghi promptly objected to that. His argument: There must be no parallel currency in the EU besides the euro. However, the enthusiasm of the Estonians for cryptocurrencies is likely to have caused little cloudiness - the Estcoin website still exists today, and as their recent blog post suggests, the idea of Estcoin is far from over.
Sweden
Similar to Estonia, Sweden is foregoing central bank intervention. Rather, the central bank of the country is enthusiastic about its own use. Since 2015, the Scandinavians have been forging plans to become the world's first cashless country.
This time around, the country's central bank, the Riksbank, is exploring various ways in which they can issue a digital currency and how it can be technologically implemented.
Away from the cryptocurrencies, Sweden, like Estonia, is one of the pioneer states with regard to the further use of blockchain. It has been known since 2016 that Sweden is researching a blockchain solution for its land register entries. At the end of May this year, the last test phase was successfully completed.
Norway
Like its neighbor Sweden, Norway is currently not just betting on the regulation of Bitcoin. Even in the land of the fjords you place your hopes in your own cryptocurrency. The Norwegian Central Bank is currently investigating the possible issue of a digital payment alternative. Norge Bank vice-chairman Jon Nicolaisen said in a letter from the Norwegian Academy of Sciences about the current differences between traditional money in bank accounts and the ever-expanding digital currencies in May.
Netherlands
In Central Europe alone on further corridor is one of the smallest states. The Netherlands is one of the EU's strongest believers in cryptocurrencies and sees much future potential in them. While some Dutch commercial banks already work on their own wallets or set up Bitcoin machines, the country's central bank has its own plans, similar to those of its Nordic neighbors. Already two years ago, she launched her crypto-pilot - the DNBcoin. During the presentation of its results, project manager Ron Berndsen called it "of course applicable" also in the past year to complex financial transactions. It is therefore not unlikely that this will also be used in mass production in the future.
Interim conclusion
Bitcoin explodes - this has not escaped state authorities and central banks. However, one does not agree on how to handle the big unknown. Instead, a wide range of government responses is currently popping up worldwide.
As shown in Part 1, especially in Asia, many states fear for influence and control, position themselves in defensive positions, invest in hard bandages and put the virtual currencies in the limelight, many countries still keep this step.
The countries presented in Part 2 have shown an overview of states that are waiting between confidence and fear, between regulation and the free market, between security needs and apparent risk-taking. These weighty states dominate the image of the regulatory patchwork world. How they will decide in the future will depend on the individual case.
Part 3 of my journey around the globe has led us to those states that believe they recognize the potential of cryptocurrencies and want to use them for themselves. They refrain from regulation and intervention, do not consider it necessary and are currently researching their own state-subsidized payment alternatives. This group is still handpicked. It is questionable whether other waiting states will orientate themselves on the pioneers from Europe with increasing importance of Bitcoin. Thus, hardly any central bank will relinquish control that has already been gained. A trend which, in addition to all market interventions, will continue to emerge in the coming year, is the central banks' research into their own cryptocurrencies. Particularly smaller states, such as Chile, South Africa, Venezuela or Uruguay, which were not visited during our trip, do not want to see the crypto train pass by without waiting.
Conclusion - the Central Bank eye remains vigilant
Anyone looking at the country overview quickly realizes: To regulate or not to regulate - the regulatory question depends primarily on the economic tradition and orientation of each country and ultimately on the influence of Bitcoin in each state.
In view of this patchwork of state answers, every look into the glass ball defies one thing. If the Bitcoin and its market power continue to grow, central bankers will also give more thought to its possible control. It certainly seems certain that in the future we will see more regulation than regulation.
In addition, it is already speculated that central banks will probably also buy cryptocurrencies as investments in terms of ever new price levels. With regard to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, the following applies: The eyes of central banks remain vigilant.
News from the founder of Messenger App Telegram, who was also responsible for the social network Vkontakte. Pawel Durow had already tried in 2010 to establish his own payment system on vk.com, which failed, however. One of his coworkers chatted out now that Durow wants to monetize his project now with more modern means.
Pawel Durow founded together with his brother Nikolai in 2006 the largest social network in Russia. VKontakte.ru has more than 90 million registered users who communicate with each other in 81 languages. Anton Rosenberg used to work for VKontakte as CTO and is currently working for the messenger service Telegram, which claims to have over 180 million active users. Rosenberg believes Durow love hypes and see the financing of his messenger as a real challenge, especially since there according to their own specifications, any advertising is prohibited. On the other hand, ICO funding would be a way to keep the popular messenger service going and make it money.
The new rumors say that the Russian IT investor is now planning to publish his own cryptocurrency at Telegram. The names Gram and DurowCoin are said to have been mentioned. The new cryptocurrency is to be embedded in its own blockchain platform, which should enable extremely fast transfers. The project is called Telegram Open Network (TON) and should build on the popularity of the software. In 2010 there were first attempts to establish its own payment service at VKontakte including the currency "Rubel VC", which failed. Less than 1% of VKontakte users were willing to use this new service. But that's not what vk.com is all about. For Facebook, too, the private nature of the network is clearly in the foreground for many users, which makes it difficult to trade in goods via the Facebook Marketplace. In any case, VKontakte no longer plays a role for the brothers Durow. In 2014, the operating company of Mail.ru took over the social network, which is by far the most popular in Russia. It invested 1.13 billion euros and already owned half of the shares. Rumors say that Putin has put massive pressure on the former operators of VKontakte because of the lack of cooperation. Durov had always refused to submit his users' data to the Russian government. In the end he lost the bidding war against the Internet giant Mail.ru.
Anton Rosenberg believes that a separate cryptocurrency can play a particularly important role in Iran and Uzbekistan, for example, because there are many Telegram users living there and the application of domestic currencies is fraught with enormous problems. In secret chat between two people, the communication is carried out encrypted end-to-end, which should make it impossible for government agencies any monitoring. According to the media, communication via telegram in Iran accounts for around 40% of Internet traffic. There, Durov was convicted for allegedly supporting terrorism in absence. His current project should not be sold at any time, because he cares about the privacy of its users too much, so Durow. Even for $ 20 billion, he would not sell Telegram lifetime.
An official confirmation including a timetable is still pending, so far there is only the video about the future plans of the company. One thing is certain: Durow has always been very positive about Bitcoin. He invested in it when Bitcoin was $ 750 apiece, and sees this cryptocurrency as "digital gold." Even though Nikolai and Pavel Durov were royally rewarded for the acquisition of VKontakte, the costs of Telegram are not borne by themselves. Therefore, logically integrating your own coin into the messenger and collecting funds for the development of the blockchain platform in advance via ICO sounds logical.
In Belarus, a tech oasis is to be created: Through tax cuts and legal incentives, President Lukashenko wants to win blockchain companies - and become a world leader in cryptocurrency.
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko is speculating that he will become a cryptocurring kings: on Friday he decreed tax relief and legal incentives for digital currency trading. So he wants to turn Belarus into an international tech oasis.
Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for more than 20 years, is considered Europe's last dictator. "Belarus will have the first government in the world to offer great opportunities to users of blockchain technology," he writes in a statement on his website. "We have great opportunities to become a regional center in this area."
Blockchain is the technology on which digital currencies like Bitcoin are based. Lukashenko's decree legalises blockchain-based companies and all "tokens" - quasi-digital vouchers that promise to participate in future profits. So the president wants to make his country a global hub, which is to collect money through so-called "Initial Coin Offerings" (ICOs).
According to a summary of the decree of Viktor Prokopenya, one of the entrepreneurs who lobby for the government, all revenue and profits through digital tokens will be exempted by 2023. At the same time, there will be measures to facilitate the flow of risk capital between Belarus and other countries.
The country is now trying to capitalize on its thriving tech industry: for some years, young programmers in Belarus have been developing products that are used far beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union. For example, the chat app Viber was developed there, as well as the IT service company EPAM Systems, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and the popular multiplayer game World of Tanks, which made its inventor Victor Kislyi the first billionaire in the country.
Companies involved in mining, smart contracts, issuing their own tokens and trading in cryptocurrencies in Belarus are not required to pay taxes for the next five years. In addition, smart contracts are part of the local law and thus find their way into the judiciary. This is an absolute novelty.
Belarus state agency is said to be the first nation ever to make smart contracts [part of its laws9(http://eng.belta.by/economics/view/belarus-becomes-first-country-to-legislate-smart-contract-107958-2017/), the state news agency BELTA said. President Alexander Lukashenko has signed a decree on the development of the digital economy. Lukashenko formulated his goals in a meeting with leading representatives of IT companies in the country. The mechanism of smart contracts could solve fundamental human problems even without a paper-based contract. Although the software is not perfect yet, says Lukashenko. Nonetheless, this is the path that development throughout the world would take. Everywhere you understand better and better that digital contracts in the long run will replace all conventional ones that still need paper as a basis. Now that the US states of Arizona and Nevada have integrated Smart Contracts into their local legislation, this is now going to happen at the federal level in Belarus. There may be a better bill in the future, they said. But the government in Minsk simply wanted to be the first in the world to incorporate this modern technology into its legislation.
Tax exemption until January 2023
Belarus wants to strengthen its own IT sector, which is why companies involved in mining, smart contracts, issuing their own tokens and trading in cryptocurrencies may earn tax-free profits for five years. The new regulation is due to expire in January 2023. The government in Minsk wants to create a positive environment for such business, so that the country as a location more attractive, as it was said.
The presentation of new laws regulating cryptocurrencies and issue of ICOs is expected in Moscow on December 28. The Russian politician Anatoly Aksakov of the Duma Committee on Financial Markets said yesterday, Thursday. Aksakov is also a member of the Council of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
The presentation of the draft law regulating cryptocurrencies and the capital raising of companies by means of an Initial Coin Offerering (ICO) was scheduled for December 28th. It will take until March next year until March next year. Last Thursday, the Duma Committee worked out the final intricacies of the bill. In advance, President Vladimir Putin had ordered the government and the central bank to develop the legal regulation of cryptocurrencies, mines and issuance of ICOs by July 2018 at the latest. Therefore, according to the media, it is very likely that the new regulation will be adopted by the end of March.
The Russian news agencies RIA and TASS Aksakov reported controversial discussions with "diametrically opposed points of view." Some Duma representatives, unlike some hardliners, argue that there is nothing to regulate in terms of cryptocurrency. The bill should also set the requirements for the ICOs and the amount of maximum investment per person. This form of raising capital is viewed as crowdfunding.
The trade in cryptocurrencies should also be regulated. This is to prevent that more Russians can be cheated. You have to give people the opportunity to work legally to protect them as much as possible. In addition to the central bank, the finance ministry also participates in drafting the bill. Incidentally, taxation of VAT is not provided for. Wallets filled with digital currencies will in future be considered "special property" by the Russian legislator. The consequences of this in detail are revealed at the latest after Christmas.
Expert rounds were also held in Russia on the question of introducing a national Crypto Ruble. This is not to be seen analogous to the ruble and should not replace it as a means of payment. However, the Russians should be given the opportunity to legally and legally acquire such facilities from the banks. According to the politician Aksakov, the talks are still ongoing.
Wikileaks, the disclosure platform on which documents can be published anonymously, will in future accept additional cryptocurrencies as a means of donation.
This announced the founder platform Julian Assange in a tweet at the beginning of the week. At the same time, the Freedom of the Press Foundation (FPF for short), which handles the processing of donations using Visa, MasterCard and PayPal, announced that it was ending its collaboration with Wikileaks.
For some time Wikileaks has accepted Bitcoin and Litecoin. Since August of this year also Zcash followed.
Assange commented on the termination of cooperation with the payment service settlers. He called the move "abundantly ironic" as the FPF was founded to end economic censorship against the platform.
He said:
He added that users of the platform can purchase products in the online store using various payment options, including cryptocurrencies.
Furthermore, it was announced on Thursday that the Wikileaks CryptoKitties are now online. The CryptoKitties is a game in which digital cats can be bred, bought and sold. The game was developed using the Ethereum Blockchain.
Assange said about the launch:
Donors can bid for a "purebred cryptographic kitten". Beginners in the cryptocurrency industry will be able to learn about the blockchain's function and gain their first experiences with digital currencies.
Nightmare before Christmas
After reaching the all-time high, the price plummeted, slumping significantly on the 22nd December and then rebounding to reach 13,802.75 EUR (16,369.23 USD).
Image based on data from coinbase.com
Summary
The Bitcoin price has soared over the week but fell towards the end of the week.
On December 22, the support described by the minimum of December 10 was tested.
Most important short-term support is 10,219.65 EUR (12,119.89 USD), the most important short-term support at 14,304.16 EUR (16,963.88 USD).
That was a day yesterday! For the passionate Altcoin investor, it was business as usual (though the portfolio was hurting), but classic media were full of reports of the "Bitcoin crash". The crash did not last very long and the price was again above the exponential moving averages of the last one or two days. The above exponential moving averages are currently making a golden cross, which gives hope for further price increases. However, it should be noted that since the all-time high, the price has been in a downtrend that has been tested today but has not been breached.
The MACD (second panel) is positive again, but the MACD line (blue) is below the signal (orange).
The RSI (third panel) is 57 and bullish.
The analysis of the movements in the 60 mins chart speaks a bullish language. Most important support is described by the weekly minimum and is currently at 10,219.65 EUR (12,119.89 USD). Most important support is described by the resistance of the downtrend and stands at 14,304.16 EUR (16,963.88 USD).
The long-term price development
To assess the further development, we consider the medium and long-term price movements first in the 240 mins chart:
Image based on data from coinbase.com
We can now interpret the weekly minimum in a larger context, as it tested the support provided by the minimum of December 10th. This support line faces the downward trend. In principle, a bearish triangle pattern could form here, but the time is still too early for such conclusions.
The MACD is negative, but the MACD line is above the signal. The RSI stands at 52 and is therefore neutral. In the medium term, the situation is neutral to bearish. The most important support is described by the support provided by the minima on the 10th and 22nd of December and amounts to 11,259.65 EUR (13,353.27 USD). The most important Resistance here corresponds to the previously described in the 60 mins chart.
Let's take a look at the 1D chart
Image based on data from coinbase.com
Shown is the Resistance of a pursued since early November upward channel. As you can see, the price is still above this, so this former Resistance has now become support. It was also tested on December 22nd but the course was able to bounce off - after a rather exciting battle of bulls and bears, which resulted in a very low low.
The MACD is positive, but the MACD line is below the signal after December 22nd. The RSI is 56 and is therefore neutral to bullish.
Overall, the long-term outlook is neutral to bullish from a technical perspective. The main support is described by the former resistance of the old upward channel and is at 12,201.81 EUR (14,470.61 USD) - and is therefore on par with the exponential moving average of the last month. The most important resistance is described by the all-time high, which is at 16,645.05 EUR (19,740.03 USD).
Disclaimer:
The course analysis is from the morning MUT time zone and can have changed since. The price estimates presented in this post are not a recommendation to buy or sell. They are merely an estimate of me.
I wish you all a lovely Christmas and a busy Santa Claus!!!
ⓁⓄⓥⒺ & ⓁⒾⒼⒽⓉ
Best regards
