Barry's analysis in that chain is poor probability work as a basis for investing.

"25% chance ETH -> ETC in next six months. 25% x $1b = $250m = 5x increase in ETC value today"

He assumes that Ethereum will be worth the same as a whole if ETHC passes ETH in value. That doesn't make much sense. If there is that much uncertainty, it's more like 25% * $500mm (half today's market cap) or lower. That's how I would break it down probalistically but with way more scenarios. Static system value conditional on chaos having occurred seems like bad analysis. There are cases where ETC wins and Ethereum is overall more valuable but you need to start with market information available.

Tbh I would have it like 5% chance (market baseline seems like the most appropriate starting point) that ETHC surpasses ETH in value, and conditional on that the ecosystem is probably worth much less likely $100mm or LTC town. There are slices where ETC wins and Ethereum but now you're 5% * some other small %.

Anyways that would be my approach. Says some guy on the internet.