Ethereum is currently implementing the hard-fork and there is a lot of FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) around the Ethereum community after the failure of the DAO. There is also evidence that Ethereum could be in a bear trend.
Price action is still unclear if Ethereum will continue to the downside due to the high volatility and the uncertainty around the hard fork. But lets talk about the future and possibilities and probabilities of Ethereum assuming the hard-fork will be implemented successfully and Ethereum won't blowup from lack of consensus.
Positive Scenario:
- Within a short time after the hardfork the community will FOMO over Ethereum and price will begin to rise again
- Ethereum will hold support and consolidate for a long period of time and eventually will gain some steam after a news release
Negative Scenario:
- Developers on the Ethereum blockchain will start to look at other blockchains and clones of ethereum to build their smart contracts on due to lack of trust from the Ethereum developers
- The DAO hacker will continue to manipulate the market with the large amount of money earned from his large short before the announced hack
My thoughts:
I think that all of these scenarios are a possibility in the future but some are more likely than others. Currently the bear trend is still intact and I think that we could see more downside in the future, but I don’t think people will completely abandon Ethereum after the mistake of the DAO. We do know that Ethereum developers will continue to build on Ethereum and in the future we are expected to see proof of stake model which could provide bullishness to the market. Ethereum is still relatively new compared to Bitcoin and I still think in the future we could see new highs but no one really knows if or when it will really happen.
Feedback welcome, let me know on Twitter @AlanStruna
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