NOTE: For an update (play-forward) of this analysis, click on the Tradingview chart image above, then the triangular play button when you get to Tradingview. Enjoy and comment what you think!
Hey there trader friends, this is one of our most detailed and important Bitcoin analyses to date, taking both human and AI analysis into account, so let’s get to it!
Summary
- BTC is likely to drop another 30-60% over the next 4-12 months, possibly 18 months.
- Short-term cycle lows are expected in July and October 2018.
- The mid-July 2018 cycle low should be followed by a 3-8 week trading bounce. Then, another big wave down into early to mid October 2018.
- October could be “the low,” but based on our data we are thinking next year is more likely
- The final cycle low, or momentum lows are expected to be in February 2019 (A.I. low date), or June 2019 (pink cycle low), or possibly January 2020 (blue cycle low_
- Initial lower price targets are $4935, then $2967-2380 (or lower).
- A.I. project forecasts 12 month low @ $2774, due in February 2019.
- The deep learning A.I. project’s forecast is confirmed by Elliott Waves , Andrews Lines, Wolfe Waves , and a few other techniques shown here, most suggesting much lower prices ahead.
- BTC has broken its “low to low” support trend-line.
- Will likely close below the Andrews Median Line (orange pitchfork's mid line), which, would put Bitcoin -3.30% below the black dotted trend-line drawn off the lowest closing prices of 2018. Once broken, the first three price targets to the downside become quite likely.
A.I. Predictions
Up top we can see the two most likely paths picked by our AI system along with their averaged path.
And here we can see the low AI target and the Andrew's pitchfork off the prior cycle are nearly perfectly aligned.
Time Cycle Caveat
We are working on pattern matching & comparison referred to as analog. This suggests an October 2018 low. That fits the secondary A.I model's forecast, but not the top performing algorithm's forecast (February 2019 low). Remember, two of the longer-term cycles are pointing to either a June 2019 low (pink cycle), or January 2020 low (blue cycle). Therefore, the October low this year seems less likely thus far, but not out of the question.
Price Targets
- Target 1: $4935, likely minimum target. It's the prior Wave (3) high on Sept 1st, 2017. The “forever trend-line” (black upward sloping) is currently around $3700. Yet, by the time the market could logically get there, that trend-line would likely be around $4450-$4950.
- Target 2: $2972, the June 2017 high of the prior Wave V of Wave (3). This is close to our A.I. derived target. Outcome, likely.
- Target 3: $2774, A.I. deep learning 12 month projected low, due February 2019. Since target 2 and 3 are so close... just a blip in Crypto Land, I would be targeting a low between those two figures, unless more data changes the A.I. forecasts. Target, likely.
- Target 4: $2380, September 15th, 2017, Wave ii low.
- Target 5: $1138, where the Wolfe Wave support (purple line) and the prior Wave (III) high of large degree meet. This is a potential attractor point (less likely now). There is a far lower target, but I'll let you find it on the chart.
DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers and best wishes, Michael Mansfield CIO