We have had our confirmed break to the downside with supporting volume.
April bottom has been breached. Next test is the weak resistance at 6145. I shorted on confirmed break out (hour chart) from 6550 to 6350 at 25X leverage and Boom! We wicked down several times and my short worked out at 25X. I will keep a close eye on what will happen next - but I don't consider myself a 'gambler' - more an 'educated guesser'; hence I rarely use leverage to either short or go long. In this case I was prepared to short using Bitmex and keep a close eye on my position at 25X. It's more work than I would like, however a bear market calls for that. We all perfer a bull market of course, and I think we are getting close.
PS - Yes I think we will go lower. I have stated where I think the absolute bottom likely lies. I always trade sensibly and well within forecasted extremes (even upon confirmed breakout) - I would rather hit a trade at an acceptable profit rather than try and milk it for every thing it is potentially worth and potentially lose it all!
We are getting very close to the rim of the cup and handle pattern on BTCUSDSHORTS. At the same time we are very close to the 6K psychological support area corresponding with the Feb low (having actually pierced through it on the current candle). This tells me we are at a crucial decision point...
If we are rejected at the rim on the shorts chart then we are bouncing upwards from the support provided by the Feb low. Anyone who has recently shorted will get rekt! This will happen very quickly!
However, if the shorts cup and handle actually plays out then we are going all the way down to 5450 before a bounce. This will also happen very quickly! The next 2 or 3 candles will tell us more, so I will update then.
Regardless, this is a no trade zone for me. I am simply watching the market for the moment (and as mentioned in my previous comments I already completed my short trade so I am happy). Even if the cup and handle plays out, I will not short again due to the fact that it will happen very quickly. Shorts will go parabolic and then get rekt via the inevitable short squeeze. I will keep updating this chart until we find our bottom, then I will create a new chart outlining the new patterns I see. Cheers