Starting a new blog/social media? Man, it's been a while!! So I'll just share something I worked in yesterday...
My previous posts on ethereum where optimistic, I can't deny there were some feelings involved. Now, I worked this chart as cold as it could get... just facts, no sentiment.
First of all, the general picture at the crypto market is reflected on red, negative numbers. There are several factors that must be observed:
- Bitcoin's hardfork on August 1st
- Vitalik's technically honest but unhelpfull comments on ethereum's scalability
- Banker's lapdogs (bloomberg, forbes, fortune and the likes) propaganda
- Many people came to crypto with the dream of getting rich just by pouring money in... no market knowledge or education.
The list could go on, but this serves my point. Crypto exploded not because regular, educated traders got into it. It exploded because people started to pour in their money in the hopes of getting rich. Much like the gold 0.16% rush! Now, with the first corrections and retracements a good deal of people lost all their money... panic sells everywhere. This people won't come back with more money! They got scared!
Now, add to that scenario all the negative press. More people got scared. And the cherry on top of the pie? HARDFORK!!! Like it or not, Bitcoin is the grandpa of all crypto, and if bitcoin sneezes,ethereum gets pneumonia.
Truth is, this is not going to die nor going to end. August 1st will pass, hardfork or not, things will be sorted out and the magnetism of this market will get strong again. Will more money be lost? yes... there is still money to lose on this arena.
But enough rants! Let's get to the chart, which is basically a downtrend channel that started the moment ethereum went to its all-time-high. From there I consider the beginning of the retracement, for what I used Fibonacci's retracement tool. The yellow circles outline the places where the price touched or broke each fib level. So basically, we have one last stop, which is the 100USD mark from May 2017. If that support is broken I honestly don't know where ethereum's price is going to stop.
The truth is, ethereum is good tech... flaws? yeah! limitations? of course! People, lets get real... Microsoft 1.41% Windows is the most buggy operating system ever and is widely used, most popular (not talking about mobiles). Ethereum is being considered for many projects, backed by some big guys and in general appealing to some tech enthusiasts. Despite other coin fanboys or tech purists.
If this coin gets to 100USD, I'll surely load up.
This is just my point of view and it's not intended or recommended to be used as investment advice.