Bitcoin rose above $11,000 over the weekend, taking cumulative year-to-date gains to more than 180 percent.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value clocked a 13-month high of $11,391 on Bitstamp on Sunday and was last seen trading at $11,200.
Cryptocurrency market experts and investors are associating the sharp price gains seen over the last six days with a number of factors, the most prominent being Facebook’s coming foray into cryptocurrencies.
Facebook to launch ‘Libra’
The social media giant is set to unveil its very own stablecoin, reportedly called Libra on Tuesday, June 17, with a launch to follow in 2020.
The project has reportedly already secured the backing of over a dozen companies and is seen boosting the pace of widespread cryptocurrency adoption by many including Barry Silbert, the founder and chief executive of Digital Currency Group.
Meanwhile, Spencer Bogart, General Partner at Blockchain Capital, believes Facebook’s crypto effort is among the most bullish external tailwinds for bitcoin in 2019/2020, as it will ease the friction in acquiring digital assets by creating a circular economy.
Further, there is a consensus in the investor community that Facebook’s crypto will create awareness that a private, non-central bank issued currency can exist, leading to increased adoption of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
The hype garnered by GlobalCoin likely put a bid under the cryptocurrency over the weekend. That, however, makes BTC vulnerable to “sell the fact” trading following the expected white paper launch on Tuesday.
Binance.com bars US customers
Binance.com, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by trading volume, updated its terms of use on June 14 to exclude all users in the U.S.
The announcement led to a sharp sell-off in Binance’s very own native asset, Binance Coin (BNB). The price of BNB fell 12.8 percent to 25,209 satoshis (a satoshi being 0.00000001 of a BTC) on Friday, and hit a one-month low of 34,906 satoshis on Sunday.
The slide indicates that investors have rotated money out of BNB and possibly into bitcoin, pushing the top cryptocurrency higher, as discussed by Alex Kruger – a prominent Fundamental & Technical Analyst.
Litecoin approaches ‘halving’ event
The upcoming litecoin (LTC) halving, set to trigger on August 5, 2019, will cut the reward gained from mining the cryptocurrency by half, meaning LTC will become a more scarce asset overall.
”Halvings’ as they are known, typically result in an overall boost in value for the crypto markets, as the assets themselves become harder to obtain and therefore increase in value.
Litecoin has already rallied 353 percent this year and may have added fuel to the ongoing bitcoin’s price rally. It is worth noting that litecoin led the broader markets higher in the first quarter, with 100 percent gains over the period.
What next?
As noted earlier, bitcoin may see a pullback following Facebook’s announcement on Tuesday. The long duration charts, however, indicate that corrections, if any, could be short-lived.
Weekly and monthly charts
Bitcoin jumped 17.57 percent last week (above left), invalidating the bearish view put forward by the previous week’s close below $8,000.
Further, the 5- and 10-week moving averages are trending north, indicating a bullish setup, while Chaikin money flow is reporting the strongest buying pressure since December with an above-0.32 reading.
The bullish case looks stronger if we take into account the falling channel breakout on the monthly chart (above right).
As a result, BTC could rise to $10,000 over the next few weeks. In the short-term, a price pullback cannot be ruled out.
Daily chart
BTC printed 13-month highs above $9,300 on Sunday but failed to close above $9,097 – the high of the bearish outside reversal candle created on May 30.
Another failure to secure a UTC close above $9,097 may trigger profit taking on long positions, leading to a price pullback to the 200-hour moving average (MA), currently at $8,300.