Coinmarketcap is suffering heavy menstrual cramps.
Korea, China, other governments and big banks with ties to those stir up the fear.
Bubble graph images transparently laid over the BTC/USD graph pop up all over crypto social media.. posted by apparent prophets who fight each other over credibility and attention.
Are they right perhaps?!
In my opinion the bubble is far off from popping (I will add an overlay of the BTC/USD graph later on)! Yet, we are most-likely entering a (much needed) bear period now and governments and big institutions misuse their influence and authority based credibility to make use of it (either they are getting in themselves or buy time to be prepared for potential disruption).
Remember 3 days after Jamie Dimon told people Bitcoin was a scam and he would fire any employee who would buy into it (which coincided with the last China FUD), JP Morgan bought heavily into Bitcoin! Back then we also entered a short period of bear market from which BTC recovered fastest.
Why I think the bubble isn't popping now
- The whole fear spread by governments and big institutions if far to well orchestrated
- Crypto didn't even hit the 1 trillion USD market cap (the Tulip Bubble popped at 1 trillion, the Dot-Com Bubble popped at 6 trillion)
- Hardly any Crypto company had a chance to fail in the real world yet
Also if you compare Crypto to the phases of the bubble graph institutional money just came in and media attention just started to rise!
What lows are to expect
After BTC first dropped I was convinced it would fall back to upper red line to form a cup with handle (I will add this drawing shortly). This would have fitted the bear trap on the bubble graph really well. Unfortunately I got carried away with the massive Alt gains lately (this is why i drew the orange line, believing it might form a symmetrical triangle).
The falling wedge that I drew is very hyperbolic in my opinion. I should have probably also used a log scale, but I simply don't like looking at those.
BTC now touched both lines of the former upward channel and could be forming a descending triangle after showing a double bottom here.
However if the FUD intensifies, we might see it dropping to the red emergency lines (around $8-9K and $5-5.5K).
ETH broke the upward channel with a sudden 77° upward trend, so besides the fact that correction was over due anyways, its a healthy sign that it bounced off the former support.
It did not double bottom yet but slowly creeps up the support again.
However as for Bitcoin, if FUD intensifies, we might see it dropping to the lower lines (around $800-850 and $650-700)
By the way it is no coincidence that the next level of support of both BTC and ETH are around -20-30% of the current price!
How I plan to get through the bear period
While of course shorting is one (very efficient) method to get through the bear market, many people don't feel safe utilising it.
As for myself I am glad to have a lot of my funds locked up in ICOs which will release over the course of the next month. Right now I try not to invest into things which necessarily need real world adoption but are genuinely focusing on crypto. I will put up a few posts about what assets I like to pick up during this bear market and which ICOs besides Matrixchain I locked up my funds in.
Make sure to check out my friend Kingsley as he is always up to date with upcoming or undervalued crypto assets.
Feel free to post any questions and remarks in the comments, I will try to respond ASAP.
Disclaimer:
This is no financial advice
I am not a financial advisor
I simply post my opinion about current events hoping to perhaps open a dialog