If you haven't heard by now, August 1st is a big date for Bitcoin in 2017. This is the supposed date of execution for BIP148, a move that may result in a split of the Bitcoin Blockchain. In some cases this split could effectively result in a doubling of BTC holdings, but in some scenarios it could lead to zero say, for example, if your wallet provider chooses the wrong chain that then dies.
There is much more fear, uncertainty and despair to go around so I won't add to the chorus of frightened hodlers. But I will say that it's important to consider what is happening in the ecosystem and how these events may shape markets and provide unforeseen opportunities.
Breakups Are Hard; Perspective is Key
Yes, there seems to be the possibility that the BTC blockchain, the beloved and revolutionary disruptive technology that has been changing the world for years, could split. This happened to Ethereum before and produced Ethereum Classic, and it happens pretty regularly throughout the cryptoverse.
What makes this particular situation unique is that Bitcoin is the first-mover, undisputed champion of Cryptocurrency. A seismic shift in this asset could have ripple effects that could dramatically alter the landscape for every other coin.
So why not panic?
History has shown that Bitcoin is constantly under pressure from various factions within the community, each with their own agenda and preferences. These competing interests have created a stalemate in scaling Bitcoin's transaction limits, and this revolver standoff has been happening now over the past two years.
There's often a lot of huffing and puffing and screaming, but it always seems that in the end, BTC endures. This, too, will pass.
But that doesn't mean there might not be blood in the streets, and if you're a crypto youngin' like myself, you relish opportunities to significantly increase your positions while everyone else runs around claiming to feel the sky falling.
Hope for the Best; Plan for the Worst
Though it is unlikely that the entire Bitcoin community will walk itself off of a cliff, preparation can mean the difference between observing a black swan event and being able to position within a black swan event.
Here's the scenario: There's trouble after BIP147 is implemented; hodlers not in control of their keys are reporting that their balances are zero. The chain forks and before people realize, every transaction they are doing on one chain is happening on both, effectively causing them to pay twice. One chain survives, one dies, everyone on the dead chain who didn't update appropriately loses everything.
Full disclosure: I don't believe any of this will happen, but I also know that the crypto market is extremely unpredictable.
So what am I considering?
An Alt Port in the Storm
There is another option that I am considering that may help me mitigate the risk associated with August 1st and BIP147, moving the BTC in my crypto portfolio into one of my other Tier A coins.
My top three coins are currently BTC, ETH, and XRP. If I am truly shook about what may happen come August 1st, I'm still a low enough level investor to be able to move my holdings without too much inconvenience.
In this case, I would focus most heavily on moving that value into the next platform that I plan to always be involved with, Ethereum.
Why ETH?
If you have any question about the utility, functionality and popularity of Ethereum, just have a look at many of the more popular ICO's happening and you'll see that Ethereum exists somewhere under the hood. It's powering the future via smart contracts and it still has so much room to run.
Were I to be truly scared about August 1st, I could do worse than divert all my funds into the port of Eth and wait out the storm. In fact, in the event that something goes wrong in the time following BIP147, you can be assured that Ethereum will see its value increase as a result.
No one is pulling for Bitcoin to suffer this kind of setback, but if it happens it'd be nice to know that my portfolio may just get a shot of value in the arm.
Why Ripple?
Ripple is, and isn't, a lot of things to a lot of people. It's relationship to the old guard financial system has garnered it much negative attention over its relatively short life, but it's performance has spoken volumes about its competitive desires.
With the price of Ripple trading solidly within a USD .20-.27 cents during all the recent volatility, it isn't hard to imagine that ripple could sustain a disruption to the Bitcoin network. In fact, a shakeup in the bitcoin community could send hordes of newcomers towards projects like Ripple that exist close enough to institutions that new investors are familiar with.
Obviously, this would increase the use, utility and value of XRP tokens. Weathering the possible btc storm in this alt port could prove to return significant gains.
Trust Your Instinct
There are those who will choose to offline their hodlings in a cold wallet, preferring to wait out the storm knowing they have the digital keys to their treasure. There are those who will feel that doing so runs the risk that the chain will split and the coins you still control will die in value.
Whichever side of the Altcoin you find yourself, it can't hurt to consider every option.
For me, I don't have institutional levels of capital invested, nor am I an old head from 2009 crypto days. I'm a guy who got hypnotized by Steemit, tripped over some awesome posts, and fell into a never ending rabbit hole that is now my home.
When I see that bitcoin may just have a big problem on my hands, I smell an opportunity. For XRP, but more importantly for Ethereum. To me it isn't unfathomable that Ethereum reacts to Bitcoin's misfortune by rising to near 1k. And if I store my BTC in that port during this storm, I may come out of the other end with significantly more value than when the winds started howling.
I haven't decided which way to go yet, but I am exploring and mapping out my choices. If you have any suggestions or want to share how you're planning to ride out the August Bitcoin Tempest, leave a comment and join the dialogue!
As always, this is not intended to be trading or investment advice. It's one little crypto-traders scratchings and musings. Do your research and make your own informed decisions, but please feel free to share all of it here!
Happy Monday Steemians!
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